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Recently, macro long and short factors have contradicted, and the overall bullish support remains unchanged
.
The tight availability of spot inventory in East China has led to a squeeze on Shanghai copper, but the epidemic continues to spread, downstream consumption weakens further, hidden inventory increases and weakening economic prospects affect bulls' confidence, copper prices are difficult to sustain, pay attention to pullback pressure
.
On the macro front, the European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision, keeping the three key interest rates unchanged; Confirmed that the net purchase
of the asset purchase program will be closed in the third quarter.
After the net bond purchases end, interest rates will rise "for some time" and any rate hikes will be gradual, which is interpreted by the market as relatively dovish, making the euro weaker and the dollar sharply higher
.
On the supply side, domestic copper mine TC continued to rise, and under the maintenance and shutdown of domestic smelters, supply-side easing expectations continued to expand.
On the demand side, the operating rate of fine copper rod last week was 42.
15%, a sharp decrease of 15.
21%
month-on-month.
The continued severity of the epidemic has made the industry passive, and the current epidemic situation in Shanghai is still tense, and the impact of the subsequent shortage of raw materials will be more obvious, and the operating rate of fine copper rods may continue to decline
.
In terms of stocks, the LME total bank rose by 03,600 mt to 110,700 mt and SHFE stock rose by 04,000 mt to 35,400 mt
.
On the whole, currently affected by the epidemic, the pattern of weak supply and demand is obvious
.
But high inflation has benefited copper prices
.
