Issue 3/2021 - Global Chemicals Quick Facts

Global chemical production to rebound 3.
9% in 2021

The American Chemistry Council (ACC) expects global chemical production to rebound 3.
9%
in 2021 after experiencing the largest decline of 2.
6% in the past 40 years in 2020.
According to the ACC, the pandemic led to a 7.
8% decline in global chemical production from peak to trough, which lasted from December 2019 to June 2020
.
Chemical production will resume in all regions of the world in 2021, with China leading Asia with the strongest growth prospects, including 5.
4% growth in China, 4.
4% in Asia-Pacific, 4.
1% in North America, 4.
6% in Latin America and 3.
1%
in Europe.
After 2021, global chemical production will continue to grow, and it is expected that global chemical production will increase by 2.
6% and 2.
3% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and the average annual growth rate of global chemical production will reach 2.
1%
by 2030.

Lubricant consumption declined in Japan

In November 2020, Japan consumed 111,700 mt of finished lubricants, down 23% from the same period in 2019 and down from the previous month, indicating that the industry's recovery from the impact of the pandemic has stalled
.
From January to November 2020, Japan's lubricant consumption totaled 899,400 tons, down 14%
from the same period in 2019.
During this period, Japan's largest lubricant consumption was October, with consumption of 119,800 tons, an increase of 17%
over the same period in 2019.
The lowest consumption occurred in May 2020 at 88,200 tonnes, down 27% year-on-year, which is also the largest year-on-year decline in the same period
.
In November, Japan's lubricant production fell to 134,600 tons, down 28%
from the same period in 2019.

Refinery closures after the epidemic accelerated

The collapse in oil demand caused by the pandemic is accelerating the liquidation of refineries that were already struggling before the pandemic, as new refining capacity exceeds demand around the world, posing an existential threat to many refineries, especially those in Europe
, which are aging and lagging behind.
Even before the pandemic, analysts expected global refining capacity to be forced to rationalize, especially in Europe
.
At the height of the pandemic's impact on markets, global oil demand fell by more than 20%.

Between 2022 and 2023, Europe's 1.
4 million b/d refining capacity will face the threat of rationalization, accounting for about 9%
of Europe's total refining capacity, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said: "By 2023, it is likely that two-thirds of refineries in Europe will not be profitable or lose money
.
"

The shortage of chip supply in the automotive industry affects the demand for automotive chemicals

The global chip shortage is threatening car production, which is just beginning to recover, and global demand
for automotive chemicals.
Demand for chemicals and polymers, which are closely related to the automotive industry, could be threatened
by any obstacles to the industry's recovery.
Axis data shows that nylon, polyurethane and polycarbonate are the most dependent polymers in the automotive industry, of which nylon accounts for up to 30% of its total consumption, polyurethane accounts for 20%, and polycarbonate accounts for about 15%.

Polypropylene, polyurethane, polyamide, PVC and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymer (ABS) are the most consumed polymers
in the automotive industry by consumption.
Among them, polypropylene accounted for 35% of the total polymer consumption of the global automotive industry in 2019, polyurethane accounted for 19%, polyamide accounted for 11%, polyvinyl chloride accounted for 9%, and ABS accounted for 8%.