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Global Chemicals Quick Review
The escalation of US-China trade frictions has affected the Asian chemical market
The Asian chemical market is taking a hit
as US-China trade frictions and the overall economic downturn affect downstream industries and their customers' needs.
Despite stabilizing or firming raw material prices, prices across multiple value chains in the chemical industry are falling, even partially to lows not seen in 10 years
.
The Asian polycarbonate (PC) market has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 10 years, and the Asian spot price of methyl methacrylate (MMA) has fallen to its lowest level
in 28 months.
Asia's market for acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymers (ABS) has also fallen
sharply.
The market is now ready for
high tariffs to continue.
In the absence of a resolution of the dispute, the United States plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in June, meaning that almost all Chinese exports to the United States will be targeted
.
The chemical industry vigorously promotes the circular economy
The circular economy initiative, which began in Europe a few years ago, is rapidly spreading to the rest
of the world.
This initiative requires gradually decoupling economic activity from limited resource consumption, while recycling waste
from various economic activities.
European companies are leading the way, and companies in North America, the Middle East and Asia are also incorporating the circular economy into their strategies
.
Industries such as thermoplastics, synthetic fibers and rubber, and fertilizers are likely to be the most
affected.
The chemical industry is vigorously promoting a circular economy
.
On the government side, the European Commission created the Circular Plastics Alliance, a key industry stakeholder group
covering the entire plastics value chain, in line with its 2015 Circular Economy Action Plan.
The alliance is part of the European Commission's efforts to reduce plastic waste, increase the amount of
plastic materials that can be recycled and stimulate innovation.
Russian lubricant demand is weak
Demand for finished lubricants in Russia has been weak
over the past few years due to the Russian economic downturn.
During the same period, Russia's combined production of finished lubricants and base oils increased modestly, while exports and imports declined
.
According to B2X consultancy, Russia consumed 1.
6 million tons of finished lubricants in 2018, down 2%
from 1.
63 million tons in 2014.
Olga Poltavskaya, managing partner of B2X, said Russian industrial lubricants recovered after falling demand in 2015 and returned to 2014 levels, while demand for engine oils for passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks fell
.
On the other hand, Russian production of finished lubricants and base oils increased from 2.
43 million mt in 2014 to 2.
5 million mt
last year.
B2X said the modest increase in Russian production of finished lubricants and base oils was helped by the import substitution program launched by the government nearly 10 years ago, which encouraged domestic enterprises and individuals to replace imports with Russian products
.
Canadian oil sands production will still increase
IHS Markit expects Canadian oil sands production to grow by less than 100,000 barrels
per day on average per year over the next 10 years.
By comparison, annual average production increases of more than 150,000 barrels
per day over the past 10 years.
Kevin Birn, vice president of IHS Markit and head of the Oil Sands Dialogue, said transportation constraints, such as a lack of sufficient pipeline capacity, and volatile crude prices in Western Canada are putting pressure
on large-scale new investments in the oil sands.
According to forecasts, future growth in Canadian oil sands production will come primarily from existing projects and facilities, rather than new ones
.
It is predicted that two-fifths of the projected increase in Canadian oil sands production by 2030 will come from projects under construction or recently completed; Nearly 1/4 of the growth will come from projects that have been suspended but construction or site clearance work has already begun; Less than 1/3 of the growth is expected to come from new projects
.
