Investors traded cautiously, and Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate downward

Industry News:

1.
Recently, according to media reports, in the third quarter of this fiscal year, benefiting from the high-grade bauxite resources provided by local suppliers, the cost of the Vedanta Lanjigarh alumina refinery fell to 269 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 8%
over the same period of the previous fiscal year.
Meanwhile, alumina production at the Lanjigarh refinery increased by 16% to 476,000 tonnes
.

2.
In 2019, the average price of scrap aluminum exports in the United States decreased by 17%, and the proportion of non-Chinese buyer customers increased
compared with 2018.
According to the U.
S.
Department of Commerce, the average price of U.
S.
scrap aluminum exports fell to 55 cents/pound in 2019 and 66 cents/pound
in 2018.
In 2019, China remained the largest buyer of U.
S.
scrap at 17%, compared to 29%
in the same period in 2018.
Malaysia jumped to the second largest buyer of U.
S.
scrap aluminium, increasing its share from 10% to 16%, after being the fourth-largest buyer
.
South Korea is the third-largest buyer of U.
S.
scrap aluminum, down from second place
in 2018.
India fell to fourth place among U.
S.
scrap buyers, accounting for 15%.

3.
On March 4, overseas aluminum suppliers quoted a premium of $98-105 per ton over the LME spot aluminum price for primary aluminum sent to Japan in the second quarter of this year
.
A Japanese aluminum buyer said that given that the coronavirus epidemic is still spreading and demand is slowing, such a high premium quotation from overseas aluminum suppliers is really unacceptable
.
He said his company was willing to pay $75 a tonne
.
Another source said that the reason why the supplier raised the premium quotation was because of the rise in aluminum premium in South Korea and the strengthening
of aluminum premium in Europe.
Japan's second-quarter aluminum premium negotiations are expected to continue until later
this month, between Japanese aluminum buyers and national aluminum suppliers including Rio Tinto, Alcoa and South32.

Yesterday's internal and external aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum is still running around 13200
.
Aluminum fundamental logic: 1) alumina prices continued to rise slightly, and we still believe that the increase is limited; 2) The total explicit inventory of aluminum ingots and rods is nearly 1.
6 million tons, and the peak inventory still needs to wait; 3) The release of new production capacity in the first quarter is concentrated in Yunnan, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the release of output will become more and more obvious
after the second quarter as planned.
Price operation logic: the overseas epidemic is the focus of the recent market, for aluminum, the short-term industry cost line in the 10,000 areas is still supported, the room for decline is limited, but under the high inventory pressure in the first quarter and the long-term medium capacity climb, it is difficult to have a sharp rebound, and the price is expected to be dominated by weak
shocks.
In recent months, overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have been suspended due to power problems, and continue to pay attention to overseas capacity changes, and this factor cannot constitute a significant benefit to aluminum prices in the short term
.