Inventory pressure is large, and the main upward action of Shanghai aluminum is weak

Market focus: (1) In January, the national consumer price increased by 5.
4% year-on-year, and the national industrial producer ex-factory price increased by 0.
1%
year-on-year.
(2) The U.
S.
non-farm sector added 225,000 jobs in January, higher than market expectations of 165,000 and the revised 147,000 in the previous month, up sharply
from 175,000 in the same period last year.

Spot analysis: On February 10, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13580-13620 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13600 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 40 yuan / ton
.
The intraday trading atmosphere is significantly better than last week, there are many middlemen receiving goods, but the holders ship relatively little, the two sides traded in a stalemate on price, but the actual transaction volume increased significantly compared with last week, in addition, a large account began to plan purchases
within the day.
Downstream manufacturers stocked a small amount of goods during the day, but due to the impact of the epidemic, some enterprises started work delayed, and temporary consumption did not see a significant improvement
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 112846 tons, an increase of 10,321 tons per day; On February 7, LME aluminum stocks were 1242950 tons, down 14,800 tons
per day.
In the week ended February 7, aluminum inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 302715 tons, a weekly increase of 71,818 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 61599 lots, a daily increase of 6336 lots, short positions of 64727 lots, a daily increase of 3373 lots, a net short position of 3128 lots, a daily decrease of 2963 lots, long and short increases, and net space decreases
.

Market research and judgment: On February 10, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2003 opened low and rebounded
.
WHO has dispatched an expert delegation to China on the 9th to respond to the Xintang pneumonia epidemic, and the new confirmed cases in China's non-Hubei region have shown a downward trend, and market concerns have eased; China's January PPI data turned from a decline to an increase, with the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rising 2.
4% year-on-year, supporting aluminum prices
.
However, the US non-farm payrolls data for January exceeded expectations, and the US dollar index extended to the upside; Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has further increased, downstream processing enterprises have delayed the resumption of work and the future production capacity release is expected, inventory pressure is large, and aluminum price upward momentum is weak
.
In terms of spot, the intraday trading atmosphere is significantly better than last week, there are many middlemen receiving goods, but the holders ship relatively little, in addition, a large household began to plan to purchase within the day, and downstream manufacturers stocked a small amount within the day
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, focusing on the pressure at the 13750 position, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.