Inventories still show a trend of dematerialization, and Shanghai aluminum support is strong

Market focus: (1) US President Trump requires TikTok to be sold to US companies by September 15, otherwise it will be forced to close
.
(2) According to the Washington Post, citing two people familiar with the matter, the Trump administration will consider possible unilateral actions
if a rescue agreement cannot be reached with Congress.
(3) On July 29, 2020, the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat issued an announcement in the Federal Government Gazette, deciding to launch an anti-dumping investigation
on aluminum plate products originating in China.

Spot analysis: On August 4, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14980-15020 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15000 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 120 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 99,918 tons, a daily decrease of 2,248 tons; On July 31, LME aluminum stocks were 1637425 tons, a daily decrease of 5,700 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract were 72883 lots, a daily increase of 2423 lots, short positions of 94886 lots, a daily increase of 2083 lots, a net short position of 22003 lots, a daily decrease of 340 lots, both long and short increases, and net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: On August 4, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2009 rushed back to the
high.
The global epidemic continues to spread, resulting in greater uncertainty about the economic outlook; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has expanded, which has stimulated aluminum plants to accelerate the resumption of new production; And the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas source imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, strong economic data, while the European and American economies are recovering, and monetary easing is maintained, which is conducive to boosting market confidence; And the performance of domestic downstream demand is better than expected, and inventory is still showing a trend of dematerialization, which has strong
support for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2009 contract trading contraction of Shanghai aluminum is long and upward, and there is resistance above the 14800 position, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long at a pullback around 14600 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14500 yuan / ton
.