Inventories reach a six-year low Shanghai copper is expected to be strong in the short term

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said on Friday that the Treasury and the Fed have enough ammunition to support the economy, and he also said that negotiations on stimulus measures will continue
.
(2) China's copper concentrate port inventory in the week ended November 20 was 610,000 tons, a weekly increase of 92,000 tons, and has continued to recover since October; at the same time, China's copper ore processing fee TC was 48.
2 US dollars / dry ton, up 0.
1 US dollars / dry ton from last week, and increased
for two consecutive weeks.

Spot analysis: On November 23, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 54050-54250 yuan / ton, with an average price of 54150 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 1010 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that cargo holders lowered premium shipments, high prices suppressed procurement sentiment, traders speculated cautiously, and transactions were deadlocked
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 45,735 tons, a daily decrease of 475 tons, and a decline of 5 consecutive days; On November 20, LME copper stocks were 157,350 tons, down 2,125 tons per day, down 12 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended November 20, the previous Shanghai copper inventory was reported at 96,766 tons, a weekly decrease of 21,183 tons, a five-week
decline.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2101 contract were 88330 lots, a daily increase of 2556 lots, short positions were 87748 lots, a daily increase of 7819 lots, a net long position of 582 lots, a daily decrease of 5263 lots, both long and short increases, and net long decreased
.

The spread of the epidemic in the United States and the expectation of a Brexit deal in the United Kingdom have weakened the dollar index, and the positive news of the new crown vaccine has boosted market optimism; The supply of upstream copper mines remained tight, copper processing fees TC remained low, and smelter production costs continued to be high; The recent improvement in downstream demand in the copper market has driven the continuous dematerialization of inventories, and the current Shanghai copper inventory has reached a low level in nearly six years, and copper prices have performed strongly
.
However, the spread of the global epidemic has put the economic outlook at greater risk, coupled with the upward trend of domestic smelting production, which has formed a resistance
to copper prices.
Technically, the Shanghai Copper 2101 contract increased its position higher, and the mainstream short position increase was larger, and it is expected to be strong in the short term
.