Inventories generally remain low, and the probability of breaking the support under the rubber is not large

Since March, the overall maintenance of the rise after the large range of decline, the decline is large, although April showed a technical rebound, but the strength is limited, recently turned down again, mainly because of the fundamental concerns, currently temporarily stabilized near the lower edge of the large range
.

From a fundamental point of view, on the one hand, because the time is in the recovery period of Southeast Asia, and the output of major rubber-producing countries is significantly better than last year's start, the export situation of major exporting countries in recent months is good, rubber supply is relatively not tight, on the other hand, the domestic automobile production and sales data since April has weakened sharply, tire downstream starts have also shown signs of weakening, the market has a pessimistic mood on rubber demand, in the context of Qingdao destocking, rubber prices generally maintained a weak
range.

For the later stage, technically Shanghai rubber is still near the lower edge of the range of support, in the context of the epidemic in Southeast Asia is still serious, the probability of breaking the support is not large, and the domestic sky rubber inventory generally remains low, the falling rubber price will still be constrained by the high operation range in the later stage, in the current high oil price driving momentum recovery background, the futures price may build a medium-term stabilization range around 13000 (Wenhua Rubber Index
).