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London copper fell overnight as the U.
S.
stock market plunged due to the sharp drop in crude oil
.
Fundamentals, Metals traders and fund managers discussed the situation in the metals market for the year ahead in London this week, with many bullish on the outlook for the copper market
.
Shanghai copper daily line maintained a small channel shock rebound trend, short-term in the U.
S.
stock crude oil led by the decline began to adjust downward, short-term support 49700, pressure 50600, it is recommended to close short positions
.
In terms of the market, on the 10th, the premium of the spot market fell again, and the discount range expanded to an average of 50 yuan / ton, but the discount range has become attractive, therefore, the spot market transaction has improved, but because the absolute copper price is still relatively high, so the downstream procurement is limited, and the transaction is mainly based on middleman trading
。 With the stabilization of the discount in the spot market, the term structure has also stabilized, and the 1810 contract has stabilized the subsequent premium; However, the premium of the 1811 contract for subsequent contracts continues to decline, and from the perspective of the future market outlook, with the arrival of new smelting supply, the judgment that maintaining the term structure has entered a turning point
.
On the 10th, the spot import loss of refined copper increased slightly, which has hindered spot imports; In addition, Yangshan copper premium remained at 120 US dollars / ton
.
On the news, following the previous agreement with China to reach a long-term refined copper premium of $88/ton, Codelco has signed cathode copper supply contracts with some European buyers, with a premium of $98/ton, up $10/ton
from last year's agreement.
And, the chairman of Chile's state-owned company Codelco said Codelco had almost sold out
its copper supply for next year ahead of schedule.
The recent tightness of spot stocks has brought the final refining copper agreement earlier
than last year.
In terms of inventory, on the 10th, LME stocks continued to decline, because the current refined copper supply has not yet come up, therefore, the spot tight pattern is still in place, the bonded zone premium is still high, therefore, in the short term, continue to attract the decline
of LME inventories.
The warehouse receipts of the previous period were flat on the 10th, and the current discount in the spot market has stabilized as a whole, and the enthusiasm of spot transfer receipts has been suppressed, but due to the approaching delivery of 1810, warehouse receipts are still expected to recover
.
Scrap copper rose slightly by 200 yuan / ton on the 10th, still not as good as refined copper, and the refined scrap price spread widened
again.
On the whole, before China's new smelting capacity is not put into place, the spot market is still tight, but the short-term refined waste price spread has been widened, scrap copper back to consumption, offset some refined copper tension, in addition, downstream consumption is not particularly prominent, and new smelting capacity has been actually put into practice, therefore, short-term low inventory on copper price support capacity gradually reduced, the current copper price market has entered the expected stage of supply, in addition, the term structure has begun to reflect this expectation, copper prices are expected to weaken in the future
。
