Inventories continue to accumulate Shanghai copper main contract shock adjustment

Market focus: (1) The minutes of the Fed meeting show that at the policy meeting that month, Fed officials expressed confidence in the US economy and believed that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged
for some time.
(2) The People's Bank of China lowered the 1-year LPR by 10 basis points to 4.
05% and the LPR over 5 years by 5 basis points to 4.
75%.

(3) The Tariff Commission of the State Council stated that imported goods purchased from the United States will no longer be subject to counter-tariffs
under our 301 measures against the United States within a certain period of time.

Spot analysis: On February 20, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 45880-46140 yuan / ton, with an average price of 46010 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 15 yuan / ton
.
Since February, traders return to work rate is high, shipment cash is also significantly increasing, with the end of February, financial pressure is getting heavier and heavier, and a small number of downstream enterprises are gradually troubled by funds, the volume of goods is difficult to release, the short-term market will continue to show goods difficulties, limited transactions, oversupply characteristics are becoming more and more prominent, the trend of discount expansion is difficult to suppress
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 159347 tons on Thursday, an increase of 130 tons per day, an increase of 17 consecutive days; On 19 February, LME copper stocks were 166425 tonnes, down 50 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2004 contracts were 64669 lots, a daily decrease of 771 lots, short positions were 84498 lots, a daily increase of 1276 lots, and a net short position of 19829 lots, a daily increase of 2047 lots
.

Intraday Shanghai copper main force 2004 shock adjustment
.
On the 19th, the number of new confirmed cases nationwide further declined, including 349 cases in Hubei, a sharp decrease from the previous day, and there were no new confirmed cases in many places across the country; The People's Bank of China announced that the 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rates will be cut by 10 basis points and 5 basis points respectively, promoting the reduction of financing costs for the real economy; Due to the influence of logistics control, the sulfuric acid expansion of copper smelters has intensified, the price of sulfuric acid has declined, production profits have been compressed, and smelters have reduced production, which is positive for copper prices
.
However, strong US economic data and the Fed's optimism about the economy allowed the dollar to continue to climb; And recently, Shanghai copper inventories have continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the past three years, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
In terms of spot, as we enter the end of February, the financial pressure is becoming heavier and heavier, and the downstream enterprises that have started a small number of construction are gradually troubled by funds, and the receiving volume is difficult to release, and the short-term market will continue to show difficulties in goods and limited transactions
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2004 contract can be long around 46300 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 46150 yuan / ton
.