Inventories continue to accumulate, and copper main forces open and fall in the future

Market focus: (1) The CDC further called on the public to begin preparing for a possible outbreak of the new crown virus pandemic in the United States, and said that the occurrence of new crown pneumonia community infection in the United States is almost inevitable
.
(2) SMM's forecast of the start data of nonferrous metal enterprises in February shows that the operating rate of enterprises in the smelting link is relatively high overall, of which copper smelting enterprises reach 75.
98%, but the overall start process of downstream processing enterprises is relatively slow, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises is 40.
89%.

Spot analysis: On February 26, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 45320-45420 yuan / ton, with an average price of 45370 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton
per day.
Most of the transactions during the day still revolve around the demand for the current monthly pass, and when the current monthly pass gradually comes to an end, the transaction activity of the next monthly pass can be effectively improved
.
Near the end of the month, the overall inquiry returned to a lighter pattern, and the holders still sold goods, and the current high discount state is difficult to change
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 170087 tons on Wednesday, unchanged from the previous day; On 24 February, LME copper stocks were 161575 tonnes, down 1,850 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2004 contracts were 74056 lots, a daily increase of 1231 lots, short positions were 88661 lots, a daily increase of 826 lots, a net short position of 14605 lots, a daily decrease of 405 lots, long and short positions increased, and net space decreased
.

The main force of Shanghai copper in 2004 opened low and continued to fall
.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in South Korea exceeded 1,000, while CDC officials warned that the new crown epidemic may break out in the United States, and the uncertainty of the global epidemic situation has increased, and the market is worried that it will increase the negative impact on the economy; At the same time, domestic transportation gradually resumed, the problem of sulfuric acid expansion was alleviated, the operating rate of copper smelters rose back to 75.
98%, while the downstream copper operating rate was 40.
89%, and the recent Shanghai copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the pressure of oversupply increased
.
However, the US PMI data for February was less than expected, coupled with the risk of the epidemic, the US dollar fell under pressure; At the same time, China's remarkable results in epidemic prevention and control, as well as the government's expectation of economic stimulus policies, partially supported
copper prices.
In terms of spot, most of the transactions in the day still revolve around the demand for monthly tickets, and near the end of the month, the overall inquiry has returned to a lighter pattern, and the holders are still dumping, and the current high discount state is difficult to change
.
Technically, the main 2004 contract daily MACD red column retreated, mainstream short positions increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to test in the short term
.