Inventories are still low and aluminum prices continue to climb

As of the close of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up at 14800, up 125, or 0.
85%.

Recently, driven by the strong external market and the tight domestic supply, aluminum prices continue to rise, and spot prices once again break through the high of 15,000, but it remains to be seen whether it can stand firm, considering that the current macro bearish factors still exist and terminal consumption has not yet improved, aluminum prices continue to rise in the short term resistance is greater, the main force of Shanghai aluminum can continue to pay attention to the range of 1.
47-14,900
.

On the macro front, the epidemic in Europe rebounded, many countries strengthened lockdown policies, and the market was worried about the prospects of economic recovery; The US election continues, the deadlock in the negotiation of the stimulus plan between the two parties in the United States is difficult to break, and Biden's support rate in polls is currently 10 percentage points higher than Trump's, and if Biden is elected, the United States is expected to launch a larger stimulus plan
.
Social financing exceeded expectations, domestic financing demand was strong, and the economy continued to recover steadily, giving confidence
to the domestic market.

In terms of fundamentals, alumina remained sluggish and anode prices continued to rebound; Electrolytic aluminum production capacity rebounded, and production is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter; On the 15th, aluminum ingot stocks reported 719,000 tons, an increase of 04,000 tons over the 9th; unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports in September were 426,000 tons, down 813,000 tons year-on-year; spot goods in East China were tight
on Friday.

In terms of supply, aluminum companies are still steadily advancing the resumption of production plan, the current profit of aluminum enterprises is relatively considerable, the fourth quarter of production capacity release is more, and the release speed is faster
.

In terms of demand, the downstream is normally replenished after the holiday, and the market consumption has not increased significantly, and some regions have introduced measures for peak production in autumn and winter in the heating season, which may affect the production of downstream processing enterprises, and then affect market demand
.

Overall, short-term demand is maintained, and inventories are still low, but as downstream demand directly shifts to the traditional off-season, aluminum ingots will return to the accumulation cycle
.
The change in the rhythm of supply and demand has made aluminum prices gradually enter a downward cycle
over time.
Maintain the medium-term bearish thinking
.