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Affected by the tension in the Middle East, the outer metal fell somewhat on Friday, and the price of aluminum rose against the trend, and the three-month aluminum price on the London Stock Exchange closed up 1.
03% to $1819 / ton
.
Shanghai aluminum night trading was also strong, and the main 2002 contract closed above 14135 yuan / ton
.
In the morning, the activity of the spot market increased, with middlemen performing positively and downstream purchases in small quantities
.
The mainstream trading price in Shanghai is around 14,540 yuan / ton, which is about 140 higher than futures
.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is around 14650 yuan / ton
.
Domestic consumption declined near the Spring Festival, while production continued to pick up, and fundamentals weakened seasonally
.
However, as current inventories are still at low levels and accumulation is slow, pressure on prices remains limited, and front-month contracts remain strong
.
Short-term recommendations are appropriate
.
At the macro level, China's official manufacturing PMI in December was above the boom-dry line for two consecutive months, coupled with the central bank's RRR cut to release liquidity, the market has strengthened expectations of demand stabilization, but the outbreak of conflict between the United States and Iran has led to increased risk aversion
.
On the cost side, the overall domestic alumina price rose slightly this week, the window of imported alumina opened, and the overseas reproduction of low-price transactions superimposed on the decline in caustic soda and bauxite prices, and the subsequent alumina rebound is expected to be weak
.
On the supply side, Yunnan Shenhuo Aluminum Phase I 150,000 tons of production capacity and Yunnan Aluminum Heqing Yixin Phase II 210,000 tons of production capacity have been put into operation one after another, and it is expected that around the Spring Festival, the output will be released, giving the supply side certain pressure
.
In terms of demand, the latest aluminum ingot social inventory of 610,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with last Thursday, with the end of the Spring Festival stocking and the impact of the heating season production restrictions in Henan affected downstream aluminum processing enterprises, demand further weakened, inventory continued to accumulate.
The fundamentals gradually turned short, and then under the tight spot market, the downside of aluminum prices may be limited, and strategically, it is recommended to take advantage of the high and short short
.
