Inventories are increasing again and aluminum prices are falling by inertia

In terms of bauxite, due to the irregular inspection of domestic local environmental protection groups, the supply of mine ore in some areas is still limited, and the price of bauxite remains at a high level and stable
.
In terms of imported mines, bauxite quotations increased
slightly due to the increase in international sea freight.
In terms of pre-baked anodes, it is understood that most of the Shandong region has resumed normal full load production, Henan has partially resumed normal production, and Hebei is expected to resume production until May
due to the impact of the Belt and Road International Conference held in Beijing due to the resumption of anode production.

Spot market: Shanghai aluminum prices first fell and then rose
this week.
Overseas aluminum continued to rise and began to drive to domestic aluminum, and the main force of aluminum was close to 14,000 yuan
again.
However, in the case of sufficient supply of spot goods, the spot price increase is not as high as that of futures, the discount of futures is expanding, downstream enterprises continue to maintain on-demand bargain hunting, and downstream stocking is not as expected
before the Qingming Festival.
The tight capital situation at the end of the quarter also affected the attitude of enterprises to hold spot, and by Friday the discount in East China expanded to around 190 yuan, and the discount in Guangdong was around
120 yuan.
The social stock in the consumption area this week was 1.
153 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons
from last week.

Aluminum rod market: Guangdong aluminum rod inventory this week 76,000 tons, down 0.
05 million tons from last week; affected by the rise in aluminum prices, Guangdong processing fees declined, and the processing fee on Friday was about
330 yuan / ton.

Position analysis: Lun Aluminum held about 717,000 lots, an increase of more than 10,000 lots from last week; Shanghai Aluminum, held 732,000 lots, an increase of about 9,000 lots
from last week.

This week, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and aluminum was affected by the strong rise of Lun aluminum, and the main price of Shanghai aluminum once again moved towards around
14,000 yuan.
However, the spot price did not completely follow the rise of futures, and the futures discount increased
.
On the one hand, spot inventory began to increase again, and the downstream Qingming Festival purchasing willingness was slightly insufficient; On the other hand, the central environmental protection team began to conduct local inspections again in April, and the downstream construction may be affected to a certain extent
.
At the same time, the environmental protection policy heating season production limit is expected to continue to support the far month price, and the positive structure of the aluminum contract is obvious
.
We believe that the sharp rise in the price of London aluminum makes the Shanghai-London ratio continue to decline, and after excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai-London ratio is at a historical low, and in the future, depending on the domestic aluminum export situation, pay attention to internal and external counter-arbitrage opportunities; At the spot level, the contract of the month after the holiday enters the spot month, and you can pay attention to the futures spot price spread continues to expand the opportunity of buying and selling futures
.
It is expected that the price of Shanghai aluminum may fall next week, and the core range of the main operation is 13500-14200
.