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Since the end of March, the downward trend of the Shanghai aluminum index has slowed down significantly, maintaining oscillatory operation
.
From a fundamental point of view, the aluminum inventory in the last period is at a high level in the year, coupled with the overseas epidemic has not been controlled, affecting China's aluminum profile exports, overall, aluminum prices will continue to oscillate
at a low level.
As of April 3, the previous period of aluminum stocks was 521,830 tons, and the current inventory subtotal level is at the third highest level in the same period of five years
.
Among them, futures inventories were 299296 tons, an increase of 7,913 tons from last week, refreshing the year's
high.
In terms of social stocks, as of April 2, SMM's social stocks of electrolytic aluminum in five places were 1.
676 million tons, an increase of 0.
9 million tons
from last week.
Inventories were 1.
641 million mt
in the same period last year.
Current inventories are at the 2nd highest level in the same period
of 5.
In the downstream industry, according to data from the Passenger Association of China, the total production of passenger cars in March soared from February, and the cumulative production in March has reached 902,000 units compared with the production and sales in February, but the year-on-year decline is still 53.
4%, a decline of more than half
.
On the macro front, the official manufacturing PMI in February exceeded expectations, reaching 52, above the boom-bust line, significantly higher than the previous value of 35.
7, but it will take time to see
whether the good momentum can be sustained.
The epidemic has had a significant impact on the global aluminum industry chain, and 8 Japanese automobile companies have announced the suspension of production, including Toyota, Honda, Nissan and other world-renowned car companies, and China's aluminum profile export industry has not been spared
.
According to customs statistics, from January to February, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 669,000 tons, down 25.
3%
year-on-year.
In the short term, domestic inventories are at a high level, and passenger car production has fallen year-on-year, indicating that downstream demand has not yet picked up, and the boost to aluminum prices is limited
.
To sum up, domestic aluminum inventories are still high, demand has not fully recovered, and the overseas epidemic has not been controlled, affecting China's aluminum profile exports, these factors are negative aluminum prices
.
In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum index will continue to operate
at a low level in the range of 11,000-12,000 yuan / ton.
With the passage of time, China's economic situation is expected to return to normal before foreign countries, and the overseas epidemic will be gradually controlled, so in the medium term, aluminum prices have a certain upward momentum
.
