Intramarket metals were mixed, and aluminum prices weakened intraday

Today's internal metals were mixed, with domestic aluminum prices weakening during the afternoon session, and Shanghai aluminum closing slightly down 0.
26%
at midday.
On the macro front, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to ferment, but the market is more cautious about the material impact that may bring, most safe-haven assets have retreated, and the US dollar has fluctuated around 96, but in the short term, whether it is interest rate hikes or geopolitical factors, it is potentially positive for the US dollar, and the support below the US dollar is expected to be strong
.

In terms of news, the final value of China's primary aluminum production in January 2022 was 3.
2625 million tons, down 2.
26% year-on-year and up 2.
38% month-on-month, and the resumption of production of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued in January, and the resumption of production areas was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Shanxi, Yunnan and other places
.

On the supply side, the headquarters of the leading group for the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Tianyang District, Baise City, Guangxi Province, issued a notice on the 19th, deciding to lift the blockade of Guangxi Baikuang Aluminum Industry Co.
, Ltd.
from 1:00 a.
m.
on February 20, 2022, and lift the control
of Baise Xinshan Aluminum Industry Demonstration Park and Xinshan Village, Toutang Town, Tianyang District.
Bose's epidemic control was lifted, but the electrolyzers affected by the sudden shutdown were greatly damaged, and it is expected that the production recovery will be slow
.
In February, the overall domestic operating capacity decreased month-on-month, and the actual output was greatly affected by various disturbances
.
Supply is expected to pick up slowly in March
.

Overseas, Hydro released the latest progress of Brazil's Albras aluminum plant on the official website on the 21st, the company said that it is currently investigating the cause of the accident and has begun preparations for the resumption of production, and is expected to start the first batch of electrolyzers in the second quarter of 2022, and complete the resumption of production in the fourth quarter to return to normal operation
.

In terms of inventory, as of February 21, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
102 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons
from February 17.
Aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it is necessary to pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the dual control of energy consumption, the impact of the European energy crisis on the supply side, and the impact
of thermal coal and alumina costs.

At present, the basic judgment of the medium term is maintained, that is, the uncertainty of the supply of aluminum at home and abroad continues, and the improvement of the consumption side is clear
.
In the medium term, the strategy is still recommended to buy on the dip, participate in the peak season rise, and the pressure range of 23,000 yuan / ton is still observed since the fourth quarter of
last year.
Pay close attention to the trend
of the social treasury after the resumption of work downstream.