International oil prices stand at a high point Lubricants may usher in a new round of price upward movement

Recently, due to the comprehensive impact of the international situation and the epidemic, international crude oil prices have been rising all the way, and on January 18, London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose by $1.
45 to close at $87.
51 per barrel, an increase of 1.
68%, which is the first time since October 2014 that the price of Brent crude oil exceeded $
87 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs and other institutions have predicted that there is still more room for oil prices to rise in the future, and may even touch the $100 mark
.

In view of the strategic significance of crude oil as a key resource in the upstream of the petrochemical industry, the fluctuation of crude oil prices will also directly affect the price trend of base oil, additives and commodities, which in turn will trigger the rise
of downstream lubricant prices.
At present, some wholesalers and channel distributors with a keen sense of smell in the market have made low-key layout of "foodies", mainly focusing on first-line brand lubricants with stable prices and abundant supply such as Great Wall lubricants, which has also intensified the concerns
of retail channels about price increases.

Everything is ready for price increases The "bull market" may reappear

History is always strikingly similar, and it is not difficult to find that in the past 2021, the price increase market has been almost throughout the year
.
In January, dozens of lubricant manufacturers' "price increase notices" appeared on the desks of lubricant distributors, with an average increase of 20% catching many "light inventory" dealers by surprise
.
At the same time as the price increase, due to the superimposed effect of upstream refinery shutdown, production reduction, logistics and other factors, the supply of base oil has tightened, which directly affects the supply and performance ability of a large number of small and medium-sized lubricant brands, and it was once difficult to find high-quality supplies
.

Fast forward to 2022, and the epidemic variant is still raging abroad, causing continuous turmoil in overseas refineries and crude oil shipping systems; The continuous quantitative easing policy of a major economy has continuously exported inflation to the world, resulting in an increase in the price of international crude oil, Shanghai copper, black oil, oil and other commodities; It is worth mentioning that the tension in Eastern Europe has also made the future crude oil exports of Russia, a major oil producer, full of variables, which is also one of the reasons for the rise in
international oil prices.

Supply has not improved, commodity prices continue to rise, inflation is not optimistic, the general environment has not substantially improved compared with 2021, how can the lubricant industry, which is highly dependent on base oils, additives and chemical raw materials, stand alone?

Some market experts suggest that several rounds of price increases in 2021, the potential of lubricant companies in terms of internal optimization, improving human efficiency, reducing costs and increasing efficiency has been released, if there is no fundamental reversal of the international situation, then the price increase of lubricants will be inevitable
.

Organic economic growth stimulates demand recovery amid market crisis

"At that time, I received several emails a day, many of which were brands that had cooperated for a long time, and we understood the upstream price increase, but if we gave an early warning, we would not be so passive
.
" "In fact, the brands I cooperated with mobilized me to stock up more than once, but at that time, the market demand was low and the company's book funds were limited, so I did not dare to buy too much
rashly.
" Recalling the experience in January 2021, several dealers sighed with emotion, the lessons of 2021 made dealers fully aware of the importance of preparing for a rainy day, and now, another difficult decision is in front of them, where is the market going?

In this regard, some senior dealers believe that before the price rises, increasing inventory in the opposite season is a wise move
to reduce the overall cost and avoid the risk of price increase 。 The argument supporting this view is the excellent performance of China's economic recovery in 2021, in the face of an unfavorable international environment, China not only took the lead in getting out of the epidemic, resumed work and production, various production and construction were carried out in an orderly manner, commodity exports surged, and the dual circulation structure of the economy inside and outside the economy began to take shape, so it can be optimistic to expect that in 2022, the sustainable development of transportation, industrial manufacturing, new energy and foreign trade will greatly stimulate the demand for lubricants, as long as the inventory is scientifically and reasonably grasped, there will be basically no backlog problem
。

However, many dealers have also formed a certain consensus when discussing active purchase, believing that they still need to be cautious in channel selection
.
The reason is that it is expected that the upstream supply chain of lubricants will also have large market conditions and supply fluctuations, which will test the supply and service performance capabilities
of lubricant brands.
On the other hand, under the influence of a series of factors such as consumption upgrades in the field of family cars, the landing of China VI emission standards, the promotion of clean energy vehicles, and the landing of double reduction policies, the demand side also has new requirements
for lubricating oil performance indicators and technological advancement.
Looking at the market, there are only a few
brands that meet the requirements in terms of technology, supporting facilities, channels, etc.
In this case, brands like Great Wall Lubricants that have reliable base oil supply channels and refinery resources, have the ability to iterate on international synchronous mainstream lubrication technology, and have relatively mature market channels often become the first choice
for lubricant dealers to "reduce costs and increase revenue".

Looking back at the lubricant market in the past two years, the current market does not have the necessary conditions for the price to sideways or fall, the price of lubricants is likely to usher in considerable increases in the next month, dealers are now in a race against time, only to increase the inventory of high-quality products, to ensure their own price and product dual advantages, in order to be undefeated
in the spring sales season.