International oil prices staged a "roller coaster"

At 24 o'clock on August 9, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened, and the price of refined oil ushered in the fifth reduction in the year, which was also the "fourth consecutive decline"
in the price of refined oil during the year.

According to the latest notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on August 9, it will be reduced by 130 yuan per ton of gasoline and 125 yuan
per ton of diesel.

According to agency estimates, the price adjustment is equivalent to a reduction of 0.
10 yuan per liter of No.
92 gasoline, 0.
11 yuan per liter of No.
95 gasoline, and 0.
11 yuan
per liter of No.
0 diesel.

International oil prices have recently appeared a "roller coaster" market
.

On the one hand, affected by factors such as favorable macro data to boost market sentiment, international oil prices rose at the close of trading on the 8th; On the other hand, last week, due to rising sentiment such as fears of a global recession, international oil prices fell by the largest weekly decline since April 1 this year, and even fell to the level
in early February this year, that is, before the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts.

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has not cooled down, why did international crude oil stage a "roller coaster" market? Has the "real fall" in international oil prices begun?

Domestic finished product prices "four consecutive declines"

This price adjustment is the fifteenth price adjustment of domestic refined oil this year, and it is also the first "four consecutive declines"
this year.
After the price adjustment, the refined oil product showed a pattern
of "ten rises and five falls" during the year.

After the price adjustment, an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters will cost about 5 yuan less to fill up a tank of fuel;

In terms of diesel, a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 160 liters will cost about 17.
6 yuan
less to fill up a tank of fuel.

Fears have cooled international oil prices

On the 8th local time in the United States, international oil prices rose, and New York oil prices returned to above
$90 / barrel.

As of the close of trading on the 8th, light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.
75, or 1.
97%, to close at $90.
76 per barrel
.
London Brent crude futures for October delivery rose $1.
73, or 1.
82%, to settle at $96.
65 a barrel
.

The analysis generally believes that the international crude oil futures price turned from rising to falling in the overnight market, benefiting from the favorable macro data to boost market sentiment
.
After the US employment data stimulated the US dollar index to rise sharply on the 5th, the demand for market risk appetite and investor profit taking pushed the dollar slightly lower
on the 8th.

Last week, international oil prices fell by the largest week since April 1 this year
.
WTI oil prices in New York fell 9.
74%, and Brent oil prices fell 8.
70%, falling to the level before the outbreak of
geopolitical conflicts.

Goldman Sachs believes that the reasons for the recent decline in oil prices include low market liquidity, and there are many concerns
about potential risks such as the recession and the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States.

Jinlianchuang also analyzed that in this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil prices showed a wide range of volatility and decline
.
At the beginning of the cycle, U.
S.
crude oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected, and the fall of the dollar once supported the rise in oil prices, but weak economic data from many countries during the cycle affected oil demand growth expectations, U.
S.
EIA inventories unexpectedly increased, demand concerns led to a sharp drop in oil prices, WTI once fell below the $90 / barrel mark, hitting a five-month low
.

Short-term downward pressure on oil prices has increased

For the international crude oil market, market analysis believes that the decision of the OPEC+ oil producer meeting to increase production slightly limits the decline in oil prices
.
However, the outlook for global oil demand is weak, the possibility of crude oil returning to the market in the Middle East hotspots has increased, and the downward pressure on oil prices in the short term has increased
.

The Ping An Futures report pointed out that although OPEC+ production increase was significantly smaller than expected, the manufacturing index of the world's major economies fell, which was negative for crude oil consumption, and the decline in crude oil consumption will weigh on oil prices
.

Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, also pointed out that at present, demand suppression has initially appeared, but there has not been a sharp decline, and if the system risk intensifies in the later stage, then there is still a possibility
that the demand side will continue to decrease.

However, Goldman Sachs believes in its latest report that although oil prices have fallen, they have not completely lost their upward momentum
.
"In our view, assuming these negative shocks are over, the likelihood of higher oil prices remains high, with the market's supply deficit remaining higher than we expected
in recent months.
"