International oil prices returned above $100 to institutional controversy follow-up trend

After a period of high retracement, international oil prices have recently resumed their upward trend
.
On April 12, local time, NYMEX's May light crude oil futures closed up 7.
1% at $100.
98 / barrel, returning above $100 for the first time since April 5; Brent crude futures for June ended up 6.
55 percent at $104.
93 a barrel, the biggest gain of the month
.

The rise in the price of U.
S.
oil and cloth oil was transmitted to the domestic market
.
On April 13, Beijing time, domestic crude oil futures rose sharply, with the main contracts of fuel oil and crude oil rising by 5.
37% and 5.
36% respectively, and the main contracts of bitumen and low-sulfur fuel oil rising by more than 3%.

In terms of stocks, Hong Kong stocks "three barrels of oil" rose across the board, of which CNOOC's H shares closed up 3.
62%.

The recent news of international oil prices can be described as long and short
.
On the one hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) continues to release oil reserves to cope with the global energy gap; On the other hand, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, and the market is worried that sanctions against Russia may cause a serious oil supply shock
.
In addition, the spread of the epidemic and the strengthening of the US dollar have also suppressed oil prices
to some extent.

In the face of complex news, institutions have great differences
in the research and judgment of the oil price market.
Some views believe that the US and IEA may have little effect, the medium and long-term supply of Russian crude oil is worrying, and crude oil prices may be far from peaking; Some people also believe that although the release of reserves cannot have a lasting impact on oil prices, the increasing unfavorable factors on the demand side are also worthy of attention, and it may be difficult for oil prices to peak
again in the short term.

A research report published by Xu Junyi, an analyst at Guojin Securities, recently triggered heated discussions
in the industry.
In its view, even if there is a negative oil price situation such as the release of strategic stocks by the United States, it will not change the fundamentals that
the supply and demand of crude oil will continue to be tight in the medium and long term, and the price will rise sharply again sooner or later.

"Oil prices are far from peaking
.
" Xu Junyi said, "After combing through the multi-dimensional data such as capital expenditure, production and cash flow of 41 key oil and gas companies around the world, it can be observed that a large number of oil and gas companies spend most of their spending on reducing leverage and improving shareholder returns after sufficient cash flow, and the actual capital expenditure increment is limited, and they focus on accelerating the consumption of inventory wells, rather than focusing on medium and long-term capacity construction
.
" ”

At the same time, Xu Junyi said, shale oil is also facing a downward trend in resource grades, resulting in shale oil production increments or long-term lower than expected
.
Moreover, the "2030 significant carbon reduction" target in Europe and the United States will also fundamentally inhibit the willingness
of traditional fossil energy enterprises to build medium- and long-term production capacity.
"The policy of 'dying' fossil fuels is unprecedented in history, and the market is seriously lacking in awareness
.
"

However, there are also insiders who have come to different conclusions
.
Sui Xiaoying, an analyst at Founder Medium-term Futures, believes that although Russia's energy exports may decline sharply and the market is insufficient, some institutions expect that there may be a large supply gap in the oil market, but from the recent shipping data, after the huge discount in Russian crude oil prices, some Asian countries have significantly increased Russian crude oil imports, and the increase in "eastbound exports" has to a certain extent compensated for the decline
in "westbound exports".

Sui Xiaoying said that from the perspective of Russian crude oil exports, Russian crude oil exports in March basically remained at a normal level, but since April, the average daily export schedule data of crude oil has not fallen, but has increased significantly; In terms of Russian crude oil export destinations, crude oil sailing schedules to Asia have increased
significantly since April.

"For oil prices, the probability of downward correction of crude oil valuation in the future market is relatively large, and it is expected that the overall operating range of the plate will decline
.
" From an operational point of view, there may not be many
opportunities for medium- to long-term trending.
Sui Xiaoying judged
.

It is worth mentioning that regardless of whether the oil price rises or falls, the constraints of high oil prices on the global economy since this year have objectively existed
.

Song Xuetao, chief macro officer of TF Securities, believes that high volatility in oil prices this year may be inevitable
.
A sharp rise in oil prices will inhibit manufacturing investment in both price and volume, squeeze out real disposable income of residents, and bring about a decline
in the price of export products from crude oil importing countries.
In the first half of 2014, when oil prices rose, after one to two quarters of inventory turnover, the ROE of agrochemicals, glass, decoration building materials, cables, recreational supplies, and papermaking enterprises will gradually decline
.

UBS even said bluntly that if the price of crude oil rises to $125 or higher, it will reduce global economic growth by about 0.
5 percentage points
.
Higher inflation will affect consumers' spending power, while higher risk premiums and lower global earnings expectations will cause more lasting damage
to equity markets.