International oil prices hit $120/barrel!

International crude oil prices rose

Oil producers' investment in oil wells declined during the epidemic, and with the recovery of the economy and the growth of oil demand, oil investment and the number of oil production wells did not return to the level of 2019 before the epidemic, and the growth of oil production was relative to the economic recovery.
There is quite a long lag
.
Oil prices now reflect the aftermath of this series of investment cuts
.

The sharp rise in international oil prices will also have an impact on domestic oil prices.
This impact is mainly psychological, and has been reflected in the domestic crude oil futures market prices.
As for the transmission to the prices of other clothing, food, housing and transportation products, there is a lag period of one to half a month.
However, we should make psychological preparations in advance and prevent and control measures against large-scale price increases
.

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine incident on Russia's PE supply

The war in Russia and Ukraine is still in a state of anxiety
.
The U.
S.
banned the Russian central bank from any dollar transactions and blocked the Russian direct investment fund across the board
.

Countries that have announced sanctions against Russia include France, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, South Korea, the European Union, Singapore, Australia, etc.
, including freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank, prohibiting entities from conducting transactions with the Russian Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, and the Russian National Wealth Fund, and stopping Russia exports strategic materials, arms export controls and financial transaction restrictions, closes its airspace to Russia, and imposes a ban on some Russian media
.
Throughout the sanctions policies introduced by European and American countries are mainly financial sanctions, trade sanctions, and technical sanctions
.
But sanctions do not include energy export sanctions
.

At present, there are 18 sets of polyethylene plants in Russia, of which two sets of LDPE plant and HDPE plant in Salavat have been shut down.
Russia's current total polyethylene production capacity totals 3456.
4 thousand tons / year, of which HDPE totals 1715 thousand tons / year, LDPE A total of 716.
4 kt/yr, LLDPE a total of 1025 kt/yr
.
In addition, a set of 400kt LDPE and 345kt HDPE in Novy and Angarsk has not been put into production
.

Russia has put into production capacity accounting for 2.
56% of global polyethylene production capacity
.
Russia will export 449,400 tons of polyethylene to China in 2021, accounting for 3.
08% of China's total polyethylene imports
.

If Europe and the United States and other countries increase sanctions on Russia, the subsequent Russian energy exports will be increasingly restricted by financial sanctions such as the SWIFT trading system.
It is said that although Russian crude oil is still being unloaded in the United States, exports have been on a downward trend.
, if it continues, it will inevitably affect the subsequent volume of all export orders, making it difficult for trade
.

At present, Russia’s orders for sales to Europe, Southeast Asia and other places are still relatively stable.
Even if the subsequent situation changes, Europe can still choose other currencies to negotiate transactions, and China is the largest market for its low-voltage imports, and the impact of low-voltage may be limited
.

The import volume of Kazakhstan and Belarus is far less than that of China
.
Turkmenistan, as a country with a large import volume of Russian plastics, has not participated in the sanctions against Russia at present.
Secondly, only Singapore in Southeast Asia has participated in the sanctions, and Singapore is not the main export destination of Russian polyethylene
.
In the follow-up, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether there are changes in the trade policies of various countries, whether there are changes in market prices, and whether there are changes in the negotiated currency
.

If the pace of sanctions in Europe and the United States slows down or even decreases, it will not have a transformative impact on the market in the future
.

At present, import and export traders' trade with Russia is partly settled in RMB, and various banks are also striving for offshore RMB transactions
.
At present, the trading agency also said that it will be re-determined according to the actual situation of the situation
.
At present, Russia's orders are also relatively stable, and there has been no significant reduction or increase for the time being
.