International oil prices have fallen, worried about the global recession, and we must pay close attention to this weather vane

On Monday (July 4), international oil prices retreated, although investors worried about OPEC production cuts and turmoil in oil producers caused supply tightness, but fears of a global recession limited oil prices
.
Traders will be closely watching official prices in Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, for August for signs of
market nervousness.

Warren Patterson, head of commodity research at ING, said: "Oil fundamentals remain firm, the strong deficit structure still points to a tight market, OPEC production fell in June, and it is clear that the group still faces difficulties
in achieving the agreed production levels.
”

The 10 OPEC members produced 28.
52 million b/d in June, down 100,000 b/d from the May revision, failing to meet their promised production increase targets
, according to the survey.
The compliance rate of the 10 countries in June reached 253%, much higher than the 178%
in May.

Major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have previously said that limited spare capacity makes it difficult to raise output further substantially, while political turmoil in Libya and Ecuador could further tighten oil supplies
.

CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said fears of a global recession had limited oil prices, with "rising interest rates and falling consumer confidence weakening the outlook for fuel demand, while data showed improved U.
S
.
refinery capacity.
" ”

Despite a slightly improved inflation outlook, US consumer confidence fell to a record low in June as concerns about further Fed rate hikes intensified
as the Fed said its commitment to control inflation was "unconditional.
"

San Francisco Fed President Daley said on Friday that even though she knew (June consumer confidence numbers), she supported a 75 basis point hike in June and would need another 75 basis point hike in July, followed by continued rate hikes to address price pressures
that may not have peaked in her view.

Speaking earlier, St.
Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed must "take direct and aggressive action to get inflation around and under control" and reiterated calls for an early rate hike to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2 percent target
.

Traders will be closely watching official prices in Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, for August for signs of
market nervousness.
The official selling price of Saudi Arabia's flagship Arab Light crude could rise by about $2.
40/b from last month, close to the record high of $9.
35/b
set in May, according to the survey.

Margins on gasoline, diesel and jet fuel jumped to record levels in June as global pandemic restrictions eased and travel demand recovered
.
Oman/Dubai crude spot premiums have climbed to their highest level since mid-March, while Murban spot premiums surged to record levels last week
.