International oil prices fell below the 100 yuan mark, and the domestic futures market fell by only 5 varieties to close in the red

After the international oil price rose to $130 per barrel, the rise was weak and fell
sharply.
During the Asian session on March 15, the main contract of Brent crude oil and the main contract of WTI crude oil both fell below the 100 yuan mark
.
Affected by this, the domestic commodity futures market fell on the day, and as of the close, a total of 69 futures varieties in the whole market fell sharply and closed in green; Only 5 futures varieties barely closed
in the red.

Industry experts told reporters that due to the current fundamental direction, international oil prices are still in a stage of sharp fluctuations, and the energy and chemical sector downstream of the industrial chain will also fluctuate
simultaneously.
At present, the supply of crude oil is tight, and it is expected that oil prices will still be prone to rise and fall
in the short term.

Commodity prices tumbled across the board

During the Asian session on March 15, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures related contracts fell below the 100 yuan mark one after another
.
As of press time, the WTI crude oil April (near month) contract and May (main) contract closed at $97.
49 / barrel and $96.
04 / barrel respectively; The Brent crude June (workhorse) contract closed at $98.
17 a barrel, down 4.
42%.

An Ziwei, a senior analyst of crude oil at the Orient Derivatives Research Institute, told reporters that there are still many uncertainties in the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and Russian crude oil still lacks buyers
.
Correspondingly, consumer countries such as the United States announced the release of SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to ease high oil prices
.
However, the world's major oil producers have shown no signs
of expanding production increases in response to the recent high oil prices.
Overall, the fundamentals of international oil prices are currently inconsistent, and only from the existing pattern of tight supply, it is expected that short-term oil prices will still be prone to rise and fall
.

Wang Haozheng, a researcher in the energy and chemical industry of Yangtze River Futures, told reporters that the recent decline in crude oil prices was mainly affected
by the easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
As the geopolitical situation cooled, the funds speculating on oil prices took profits
.

When international oil prices fell below the 100 yuan mark, the domestic commodity futures market also pulled back
across the board.
As of the close of trading on March 15, a total of 69 varieties in the domestic commodity futures market fell
sharply.
Among them, 9 varieties such as asphalt, fuel oil, Shanghai fuel oil and coking coal fell by more than 5% throughout the day; In the whole market, only 5 varieties such as strong wheat, bean one, thermal coal, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are barely red
.

In terms of sub-sectors, the energy and chemical sector as a whole suffered a heavy setback
.
In addition to some energy and chemical varieties with a decline of more than 5% mentioned above, coke, PTA, methanol, glass, polypropylene, plastics, PVC, styrene and other energy and chemical varieties also fell
to varying degrees.

The agricultural and metal sectors also saw widespread declines
.
Among them, the main contracts of palm oil and apples closed down by more than 5%; Pulp, eggs, rapeseed, japonica rice, ferrosilicon, iron ore, Shanghai tin and other futures varieties fell by more than 4%.

In the context of stock and futures linkage, all 5 financial futures products also fell
.
Among them, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50 and CSI 500 stock index futures all closed down by more than 5%; Three other Treasury futures also fell
to varying degrees.

Zhang Xiaojuan, head of Huishang Futures Industrial Products, told reporters that the current market's concerns about crude oil supply have eased, resulting in oil prices falling under pressure
.
Affected by this, energy and chemical varieties, which are the downstream of the industrial chain, have also seen a sharp correction
.
Among them, bitumen and fuel oil are the most direct downstream products of crude oil, and the price is closely linked, and the correlation between the three is about 85%, so in the case of the decline in international oil prices, the varieties related to them have a large decline; The correlation coefficient between ethylene glycol, PVC, methanol and other chemicals and coal is high, so the decline of related varieties is relatively small
.

Non-ferrous metal products still have long opportunities

Many industry experts believe that international oil prices still have upward potential in the future, but the investment opportunities are not significant
.

Wu Mengyin, a senior strategist at Orient Derivatives Research Institute, believes that the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has driven international oil prices to rise
sharply.
With the easing of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, crude oil prices are also giving up their previous gains
.
In the context of internal and external linkage, the prices of energy chemicals and oils and fats, which are the downstream industries of crude oil, will also be deeply affected
.
Similarly, the tight supply pattern of non-ferrous metal plates has not eased
.

An Ziwei believes that there are two main lines of trading with strong certainty in the first half of this year, namely, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations and China's economic recovery are optimistic
.
Under the expectation of new infrastructure policies and the disturbance of the supply side, the non-ferrous metal sector may maintain a strong trend
.
However, in the case of weak recovery in terminal demand, the risk of a correction in the price of finished goods and iron ore in the black plate is rising
.

"It is expected that crude oil prices will enter a period of shock after short-term adjustment, which will be supported by certain costs for downstream commodities, and the decline space for commodity prices with low cracking spreads is relatively limited
.
" Wang Haozheng told reporters that the infrastructure construction in the new and old energy fields will have a good performance in stabilizing the economy, and there are still opportunities for non-ferrous metals and black downstream varieties related to them
.

Zhang Xiaojuan also believes that in the short term, there are still long opportunities
in the energy and chemical sector.
In the medium and long term, the energy and chemical sector may experience weak shocks for two main reasons: first, geopolitical risks have not been completely lifted, and they are still the fuse that affects oil price fluctuations; Second, the number of shale oil rigs in the United States is increasing, which is negative for the rise in oil prices
.