International oil prices fall below the $90 mark? Are oil prices finally about to plummet?

Since the beginning of this year, the high international oil price has aroused the attention of the entire market, until recently oil prices have shown signs of falling, especially in recent days oil prices have fallen below the $90 mark, many people are asking whether oil prices are going to fall, what should we think about this? Are international oil prices really about to enter a downward cycle?

First, the international oil price fell below the $90 mark?

According to the Economic Observer, as the market is increasingly worried about recession, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have both fallen back to the level before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the US WTI crude oil has lost the $90 mark
.

On August 4, Eastern time, the settlement price of U.
S.
crude oil futures fell 2.
34% to $88.
54 per barrel, the lowest closing level
since February 2.
Brent crude futures settled down 2.
75% at $94.
12 a barrel, the lowest close since Feb.
18
.

According to the Times Weekly, at 24 o'clock on August 9, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window is about to open
.
With the shock and decline of international oil prices, domestic oil prices may usher in a downturn
.

Second, how should oil prices be viewed?

We see that the current international oil price has fallen below the $90 mark, and many people are asking, what should we think about this matter at present, and will there be a further decline in international oil prices in the future?

First of all, from the perspective of the development of the entire market, the current decline in international oil prices is inseparable from the changes in supply and demand of the entire market, the current demand of the entire market has actually begun to slow down, due to the impact of economic downward pressure, the entire market demand began to decline, the United States crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, gasoline inventories should also slow down and increase more than expected, in this context, the demand of the entire market is in a relatively insufficient state
。 From the perspective of market supply, although OPEC's current production increase is actually in an unprecedented small-scale state, this is actually a process of increasing production, this increase in production is also the result of an increase in supply, so the final result is that demand is seriously insufficient and supply is still increasing, which naturally leads to a rapid decline in oil prices, which is the core reason for the current fall below the $100 and $90
barriers.

Secondly, from the perspective of the development of the domestic oil price market, the current domestic refined oil prices have experienced three consecutive declines, so the possibility of the fourth oil price decline is still relatively large, and the overall domestic oil price should be in a relatively downward state, so for the short term, the further decline in domestic oil prices is a normal phenomenon
。 At the same time, we also observed that the price of fuel surcharge has also changed significantly, the current domestic fuel surcharge began to fall back phenomenon, the adjusted fuel surcharge further reduced, which actually represents the impact of international oil prices on domestic oil prices, so in the future, the price of the entire domestic refined oil is still at a relatively low level, which is the core reason for the relative impact of domestic oil prices on international oil prices
.

Third, from the perspective of long-term market development, although the oil price of the entire market belongs to a relatively downward state, but this downward trend actually has no basis for long-term decline, the core reason is that the current market demand is still in a relatively changing state, we observe that the US non-farm payrolls data has exceeded expectations, this growth in a sense also represents that the space for international economic development is still relatively large, the recovery of demand in the world's overall market is still worth looking forward to.
Therefore, the overall market demand may be in a volatile and rising state
in the future.
And we are observing the supply of refined oil products in the entire market, the supply of world oil is still at a relatively increasing level, but this increase is very limited, once there is a large-scale rise in demand, it will naturally drive the price of the entire refined oil to rise further, which is the inevitable result
of market changes.

Therefore, our demand analysis of the market is still the possibility of demand recovery, while supply has no room for large-scale upward movement, and the final result, oil prices may still maintain a relatively high operation
.