International oil prices continue to fall, will it return to the 100 yuan mark?

Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have been repeatedly adjusted, with ups and downs
.
Since the beginning of the year, the international crude oil futures price has risen rapidly to $100 per barrel, and oil prices have continued to oscillate upwards, once breaking through the $120 per barrel mark
.
However, in recent times, the crude oil market has performed sluggishly due to the global economic downturn, and the international oil price has hovered
above $90 per barrel.

International oil prices continue to fall, is the trend gone? Will it return to the 100-dollar mark?

Supply tensions eased and oil prices fell

As of the close of trading on the 15th, light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.
68 to close at $89.
41 per barrel; London Brent crude futures for October delivery fell $3.
05 to close at $
95.
10 per barrel.

On the news side, oil giant Saudi Aramco said on Sunday that Saudi Aramco can produce oil at maximum capacity if needed, and continuous investment in the oil industry is necessary, and Saudi Aramco can increase production to 12 million barrels
per day at any time.

Based on Saudi Aramco's preparations to increase production, the progress of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the recent resumption of production of the US Gulf of Mexico offshore drilling platform and the fire at the Cuban oil storage base, the current oil supply disruption concerns have eased, and it is expected that the future crude oil market will be oversupplied, resulting in lower
oil prices on Monday.

The global economy is in decline, and oil prices are under pressure

However, analyzing the deep-seated reasons for the recent sustained downturn in international oil prices, the industry generally believes that this is mainly affected by the market's concerns about the economic outlook
.

The U.
S.
consumer price index (CPI) rose 8.
5 percent year-on-year in July, 0.
2 percentage points below expectations and away from the 9.
1 percent high set last month
, the data showed.

The analysis believes that the significant slowdown in US inflation, in addition to the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hikes, is significantly related
to the downward trend in energy prices under the fear of a global recession.
Despite this, US inflation is still running at a high level, and considering that the core CPI has not decreased significantly, the possibility
of a further rise in the US CPI in the later period is not ruled out.

Affected by recession fears, OPEC and other institutions have lowered their crude oil demand forecasts
this year.
OPEC expects global crude oil demand to grow at 3.
1 million barrels per day in 2022, compared to 3.
36 million barrels per day previously, which further cools
oil prices.

Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley (MS), recently wrote that the clouds of global recession are gathering
.
The U.
S.
economy fell into a "technical recession" in the second quarter; And the eurozone recession looms worse
.

In the context of the general decline of the global economy, international oil prices are facing greater upward resistance
.
At present, the accelerated tightening of monetary policies in many countries around the world, the general interest rate hike of central banks, the strengthening of global economic recession expectations, and investor concerns have exacerbated the tense volatility of energy markets, resulting in a sustained downturn in oil prices
.

Can I return to the 100 yuan mark?

Although oil prices have fallen at the moment, overall, they are still relatively strong
.
Expert analysis pointed out that recently, OPEC + oil production is limited, the Group of Seven is still considering the global oil embargo, and the decline in US drilling data and other factors to form a positive support
for the international crude oil market.

Looking forward to the future, under the decline of the global economy, will international oil prices return to the 100 yuan mark?

The data showed strong growth in non-farm payrolls in the United States in July, and the unemployment rate was lower than expected
.

"The improvement in some economic data has eased investors' fears
about the recession to some extent.
In addition, the problem of energy supply remains
.
Han Zhengji, an analyst at commodity price monitoring agency Jin Lianchuang crude oil, said
.

But he also reminded that international oil prices are still at a trough of nearly 6 months, and investors' concerns about the poor demand outlook have not completely subsided
.
The sluggish economies of the United States and Europe, and the growing debt distress of emerging market economies, have left the outlook for energy demand cloudy
.

Still, Goldman Sachs is bullish on future oil prices, saying the reasons for the current rise in oil prices are still strong and the market shortage is more severe
than expected in recent months.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent prices to rebound well above forward market levels, with its third- and fourth-quarter forecasts now at $110 to $
125 a barrel.