Insufficient support for aluminum prices and greater upward pressure

In terms of external trading, the price trend of Lun aluminum has maintained a trend
of falling first and then rising.
The Sino-US trade war has triggered concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth, coupled with the sharp decline in oil prices, which has triggered a rise in market risk aversion, and the lack of support for the weak trend of aluminum prices, and the price of London aluminum has fallen
.
The market is mainly focused on the $2,000 support level
.

In terms of the market, the price trend of spot aluminum has generally maintained a downward trend in recent days, the data shows that the weekly average quotation of Yangtze River spot AOO aluminum ingots is 13944 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan / ton per week, and the average price of Yangtze spot aluminum per ton in the previous week was 14136 yuan, down 192 yuan / ton month-on-month, down about 1.
4%
month-on-month.

In terms of inventory, the trend of Lun aluminum inventory has maintained a decline and then an increase in recent days, and the latest inventory volume was reported at 1051425 metric tons, with a total increase of 2250 metric tons, an increase of about 0.
2%; The total weekly aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 801705 tons, down 12,337 tons, or about 1.
5%,
from last week.

Macro Information:

Domestically, in October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.
2%, down 0.
6 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing industry as a whole continued to operate in the expansion range, but the expansion slowed down
.

Internationally, driven by strong job creation in the services sector, the US ADP employment data in October soared to an eight-month high since February this year, and the job market performed well
.

Aluminum market dynamics:

1.
China's electrolytic aluminum output in the first three quarters was 25 million tons, an increase of 4.
2%, down 0.
8 percentage points; alumina output was 50.
57 million tons, an increase of 3.
4%, and the growth rate fell by 13.
2 percentage points
year-on-year.

2.
China's imports of aluminium scrap fell 39% year-on-year to 33,880 tonnes in September, also hit by a 25% retaliatory tariff in April, followed by an additional 25% tariff announced in August
.

Future market outlook: domestic economic data is not good, the heating season effect is not satisfactory, aluminum prices lack support trend is weak, spot aluminum prices continue to fall
.
Fed interest rate hike expectations increase, non-ferrous metals remain on the sidelines; In early November, the macro atmosphere of the market has not yet warmed up, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient, and it is expected that the trend of spot aluminum prices will remain weak and volatile
next week.