Institutions: Crude oil plunge weighs on fuel oil prices

Crude oil morning commentary: The US dollar index rose, the market's concerns about the global recession and falling energy demand increased, Citi shorted crude oil, and international oil prices fell the most in three months
.
As of the close of trading on July 5: WTI fell 8.
93 to $99.
5 / barrel, or 8.
2%, in August; September Brent fell 10.
73, or 9.
5%, to $102.
77 a barrel; The SC08 contract fell 59.
1 yuan / barrel to 667.
9 yuan / barrel
in overnight trading.
From the news, Citibank analysts said that if there is a global recession that seriously affects oil demand, the price of crude oil may fall to $65 / barrel at the end of 2022; The price of crude oil may even fall to $45 per barrel
by the end of 2023.
At the same time, the Norwegian Energy Industry Oil and Gas Union said it had reached a wage agreement with employers and would not hold a strike
.
It also means that Norway's 130,000 b/d of supply shortfall due to strikes will also recover, which will have a certain dampen
on oil prices.
At the same time, the cracking of refined oil products in the European market also fell by 5-10 US dollars / barrel, indicating that the pattern of tight supply of refined oil products has indeed been eased
to a certain extent.
At present, the logic of market trading is that OPEC+ has limited future production increase capacity, Libya reduction and the market pessimistic about global economic growth expectations, the trade-off between the year-on-year decline in gasoline demand in the United States, after yesterday's big fall, oil prices will show a certain rebound in the short term, pay attention to risk prevention, and the short order in the early stage can temporarily take profit and leave the market
.

Fuel Oil Morning Comment: The sharp drop in crude oil has dragged down fuel oil prices

As of the night session, LU09 fell 355 yuan / ton to 5705 yuan / ton, the premium Singapore August paper cargo 2.
9 US dollars / ton, FU09 fell 257 yuan / ton to 3330 yuan / ton, the premium Singapore August paper cargo 13.
4 US dollars / ton, from the fundamental point of view, the current international shipping market has recovered.
Last week, Singapore's fuel oil stocks fell by 91,300 mt to 3.
2706 million mt, ARA fuel oil inventories fell by 15,000 mt to 1.
258 million mt, and Singapore fuel oil inventories fell 91,300 mt to 3.
2706 million mt, which is positive for fuel oil prices
。 The current crude oil plunge drags down fuel oil prices, the difference between high and low sulfur prices mainly comes from the disturbance of the supply side, the current low sulfur spot again shows signs of outstock, the rise in premiums, short-term low sulfur has been driven by strengthening again, for high sulfur, the valuation part has been repaired, the bearish sentiment has eased, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly, although the high and low sulfur price difference narrowed sharply last night, but more in the drive of crude oil, the market high and low sulfur price difference is still driven by widening, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being
。