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In 2018, China's electrolytic aluminum production fell year-on-year and was less than expected, mainly due to the slow pace of some new production, and the company's capital situation and policies were not as expected to drag down the progress
。 According to Aladdin's statistics, at the beginning of the year, it is expected that a number of new investment projects will bring 4.
2 million tons of increase to electrolytic aluminum production capacity in 2018, but the current actual assessment found that it is much lower than expected at the beginning of the year, these new production capacity is estimated to decline from 4.
2 million tons to 2.
62 million tons, the expected difference is as much as 1.
58 million tons, and whether the expected new production capacity can finally be achieved at the end of the year will also depend on the flow of corporate funds, local policies, power plant costs and other factors, there is a certain uncertainty, if the production is not as expected, it is expected to constitute a certain strong support for aluminum prices
。
From the perspective of China's electrolytic aluminum supply and demand balance, according to Andinin statistics, China's primary aluminum production in 2018 is expected to be 36.
78 million tons, net imports of 30,000 tons, consumption of 36.
58 million tons, annual surplus of 230,000 tons, international trade disputes in 2018 intensified or affected the import and export environment and corresponding volume
.
In addition to the production limit of the heating season at the end of the year, there is currently no expected market-oriented production reduction, the actual trend of aluminum prices and industry expectations are the key, 2018-2019 is an important turning point
in the supply and demand structure of the aluminum market.
From a policy perspective, China's deepening of supply-side structural reform has basically cleaned up the problem of illegal production capacity that has plagued the domestic aluminum industry for many years, and the supply-side reform has solved the death of aluminum overcapacity, the industry has been ruled by chaos, and the release of production capacity is relatively orderly, and it is difficult to approve new indicators in the next three to five years, and the supply elasticity will become smaller
。 In addition, the three-year action plan for environmental protection and winning the blue sky defense war has led to an overall increase in the cost of electrolytic aluminum raw materials: bauxite (mining) - alumina (red mud); Pre-baked anode-petroleum coke; Environmental protection has become a long-term national policy, and the clean-up of coal-fired captive power plants is aimed at the electrolytic aluminum industry: the focus is to pay government funds and additions in accordance with the law, and all localities shall not arbitrarily reduce or reduce them; Promote the irreversible and significant increase in industry costs
.
From the perspective of electrolytic aluminum production costs, the darkest moment is the end of 2015, when nonferrous prices were generally close to or even fell below the cost line, and the most serious time was a comprehensive accounting loss and a cash loss of more than 70% of domestic aluminum manufacturers, but since 2016, commodity prices have risen comprehensively, and aluminum prices have risen back to around the 90% quantile of the global electrolytic aluminum production cost curve
.
From the perspective of cost composition, the rising factors of the upstream and related expenses of the aluminum market are quickly reflected in commodity prices
.
At present, 80% of the electricity consumption of the domestic former electrolytic aluminum industry has come from self-provided electricity, which makes the cost of alumina, coal and anode carbon block play a great role in pushing up the cost of electrolytic aluminum, squeezing the profit margin of aluminum plants, and also suppressing the progress
of aluminum enterprises to resume production and new production capacity.
In the context of the collective rise of various cost items, the cost of electrolytic aluminum will gradually move
up.
Environmental protection has led to a simultaneous rise in the cost of each product at the front end of the industrial chain, and after the redistribution of profits, the cost of electrolytic aluminum will remain high for a long time in the future, and the weighted average cost of the whole industry in the second half of the year will be above
14,000 yuan / ton.
