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Affected by the sharp rise in the US dollar index, industrial products generally fell sharply on Friday, London copper fell to $6,040, technically copper prices are unable to maintain the low before last week's rebound results are tested again, short-term moving averages have converged to form strong pressure, nearly two months of lateral shock or end, start to fall
.
Financial markets fell on Friday, and the dollar index rose sharply back to near the high, as the market focus returned to the pressure of US interest rate hikes and European political risks after the US midterm elections, especially as Treasury yields rose to 10-year highs, the impact of interest rate hikes on asset allocation, coupled with trade war concerns, the expectation of peak US economic growth became stronger and stronger, and the pressure on US stocks increased
.
In addition, crude oil continued to fall, the direct reason is that the sanctions on Iran are less than expected, and the increase in US crude oil production is more than expected, the impact of US energy policy on oil prices will be further enhanced, and the logic of oil prices may be reshaped
.
Domestically, the central bank's policy statement on private enterprise loans over the weekend will not force banks to implement, and this idea of replacing system construction with administrative orders will only disrupt market expectations, and short-sightedness and speculation of policies may further undermine market confidence
.
In addition, the State Administration of Taxation said in an interview that the next step will be to put forward a larger inclusive tax reduction policy proposal as soon as possible on the basis of implementing the existing preferential tax policies, the author believes that this statement implies that the specific tax reduction plan is far from taking shape, and the possibility of implementing new tax reduction measures within this year is extremely low
.
Major economic data for October will be released this week, which may further confirm that the decline in economic growth has accelerated, and risk assets are under new pressure
.
Inventories on the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell by 5,000 tonnes as imports slowed down due to a sharp loss in imports for more than a month, trade premiums fell, and bonded inventories increased
.
Traders raised prices to regain spot last week, downstream bargain hunting, Shanghai copper holdings increased slightly, but the overall level is still extremely low
.
Traders may continue to rise before delivery, slightly supporting prices, but weak demand at the end of the year is almost certain, this week's Shanghai copper meeting, China's next year's long order demand or determine the tone of the medium-term copper market, obvious demand or disappointing
.
Coupled with the fact that this week's economic data release may increase macro pressure, or drive copper prices to continue to fall, bears patiently persist.
Today 49000-48500
.