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2020 is about to pass the half, for the PVC industry, 2020 is also destined to be an extraordinary year, in the past 5 months, from the post-holiday return market unilateral continued to fall, only one step away from the historical low, and in the bearish sound, the low rebounded more than
1,000.
In the first half of the year, the PVC market trend fluctuated sharply, the first quarter continued to decline, and into the second quarter, the market began to rebound at a low level
.
The main factors affecting the market in the first quarter include delayed demand recovery, high social inventory, sharp decline in crude oil, import source expectations, pessimistic macro environment and other factors
.
PVC prices began to rebound in the second quarter, mainly because of the upswing in the crude oil market, centralized maintenance and cashing, demand recovery exceeding expectations, the gradual dematerialization of social inventories and the gradual improvement of PVC fundamentals
.
The data shows that in the first half of the year, the highest price of East China SG-5 was 6920 yuan / ton for self-pickup, and the lowest price was 5115 yuan / ton
.
As of June 18, the average price of SG-5 in East China from January to June was 6054 yuan / ton, 597 yuan / ton lower than the same period last year, down 8.
98%.
In the second half of the year, the macro situation may be stable and improving; From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the supply of PVC continued to increase in the third and fourth quarters, and there was certain pressure on the supply side; On the demand side, demand in the early third quarter may fall slightly from a high level, but demand may start again in the late third quarter
.
It is expected that the trend of inventory dematerialization in the third quarter will continue to slow down, but the fundamental pressure is still not large, and it is expected that the PVC market will rise after the correction in the third quarter, and the shock range will be amplified; If several sets of devices are put into operation as scheduled in the third quarter, the PVC market will face greater pressure in the fourth quarter, and the market operation will be under pressure, but it is expected that the overall price center of gravity will move
upward in the second half of the year.
