In 2022, international oil prices will be bullish by many parties

"Will the price of oil reach $100 a barrel?" Russia's "Izvestia" reported on the 23rd that in the past month, the price of Brent crude oil rose sharply by 34%, almost reaching a seven-year high
.
Brent crude futures closed at $
87.
89 a barrel on Jan.
21.
Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, believes this is just the beginning: the market will usher in a real rebound
in oil prices in the face of supply shortages.
The analysis believes that the main driving force for the rise in global oil prices in 2022 is the overall growth of global demand, the production cuts of some countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement, and the high-speed operation of China's industrial production
.

Market demand will outstrip supply

In a January report, the world's leading energy analysts noted that the oil market was scarcer
than expected.
OPEC+ plans to increase production
at a rate of 400,000 barrels per day.
However, according to the latest estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA), world demand for oil will exceed OPEC+ supply this year
.

The IEA believes that the Omicron strain has not had the big impact
on the world's raw material consumption as people think.
The market deficit is increasing and international demand is growing
steadily.
The IEA has raised its demand forecast for 2022 by nearly 200,000 b/d, while the energy sector in the United States and Europe has both cut its oil production forecasts
for non-OPEC countries in 2022.

Egypt's "Pyramid Economic Weekly" analysis pointed out that OPEC+ countries maintain the current production situation, world economic and trade activities are expected to retaliate after March, especially the inertia of China's sustained high-speed economic growth, all of which make the international oil market appear in short supply
.
Deutsche Welle reported that while the aviation industry is still operating well below pre-pandemic levels, it has so far largely withstood the impact of the Omicron strain, driving demand for aviation fuel in Europe, and air travel is expected to continue to recover
in 2022.

"Oil investment is decreasing"

Priyavinish, an independent expert in the field of Russian energy, said that one of the reasons why crude oil supplies will not grow significantly this year is that large oil companies do not have enough
money for the exploration and development sector.
In addition, high natural gas prices are further driving global demand
for oil.

Christopher Wood, head of global equity strategy at Jefferies, said that "political attacks" on fossil fuels in recent years have hit investment in the sector hard, but in fact traditional energy is still important
.
He said 84 percent of the world's energy needs are met by fossil
fuels.
"In a world that is completely reopened, oil prices will go higher because investment in oil is decreasing, but the world is still consuming fossil fuels," he said, adding that oil prices will be higher in the future, which will certainly exacerbate inflation fears
.

According to Russia's "Today's Economy" network reported on the 22nd, another factor supporting the rise in oil prices is the tension between Russia and Ukraine, a possible military conflict and the possibility of imposing new sanctions on Russia, which will lead to oil supply disruptions
.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent crude will reach $
100 per barrel in the summer of 2022.
By 2023, the average cost of Brent crude oil will reach $
105 per barrel.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
even expects international oil prices to rise to $125 in 2022 and $
150 in 2023.

There are unpredictable factors in the rise in oil prices

Chernyaev, an associate professor at RUDN University, believes that oil prices will not be higher than $100 a barrel, and once this level is breached, the US shale oil project, which was originally at a competitive cost disadvantage, will become economically viable
.

Analysis from Wall Street believes that the impact of rising crude oil prices will eventually be transmitted to every gas station
.
In California, a gallon (about 3.
8 liters) of gasoline costs as much as $
4.
65.
According to the American Automobile Association, the national average for gasoline is $3.
33, up from $
2.
40 a year ago.

German media worries that another consequence of rising oil prices is to make consumers feel inflationary pressures
further.
Central banks are under increasing pressure to curb inflation, and as energy prices are the most prominent driver of inflation, they could trigger a "spiral" in wage prices
.

However, some media believe that oil prices have both room to continue to climb and some unpredictability
.
Qatar's Oriental newspaper believes that the real recovery of the global economy is still taking time, and with OPEC members' commercial oil and fuel inventories at a seven-year low, any reduction in supply may make the oil market volatile
in 2022.
On January 21, international oil prices fell rapidly by nearly $4.
5 per barrel in eight hours, indicating that the market still has floating chips
.