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According to monitoring, natural rubber in March continued the previous month's market, this month fell -14.
15%, as of the 28th Tianjiao standard rubber quotation has fallen below the 15,000 yuan / ton mark
.
From the perspective of futures reflecting expectations, the rise of Shanghai rubber in the early stage has fully realized the positive, market sentiment has changed, we expect 22,000 points may be the high point of the year, medium and long-term bearish thinking remains unchanged
.
Specifically, this month ushered in the collapse of the price of tianjiao futures, tianjiao 1705 plunged sharply, the current domestic spot market closely follows the futures disk, spot quotations are mostly on the basis of the futures price to reduce about 1000 yuan / ton, tianjiao futures price fell sharply naturally dragged the spot lower
.
Also, on the one hand, the decline in crude oil prices has led to the weakening of the entire energy sector, on the other hand, March 21-22 is Thailand's last batch of national reserve rubber dumping, which itself will significantly suppress market confidence, quickly suppress the futures market, and also aggravate the panic
caused by the abundant spot influx into the market.
As of mid-March 2017, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to rise to 187,000 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons, or 12.
52%,
from 166,200 tons at the end of February 。 Among them, natural rubber was 137,500 tons, an increase of 14,100 tons, an increase of 11.
43%; Synthetic rubber 45,100 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons, an increase of 17.
45%, the inventory of tianjiao and synthetic rubber have shown more than 10% growth, although the domestic production area is still in the period of suspension, tianjiao consumption basically relies on imports, imports remain high, it is worth noting that the current inventory of tianjiao futures has increased to 330,000 tons, the pressure of the expected inflow into the market is intensified, and the market has fallen again and again
.
For the price trend of Tianjiao in April, from the supply side, the source of imported goods will continue to impact the domestic market, and the short-term pressure on port inventory is still large
.
From the demand side, the current demand for all-steel tires has recovered steadily, which supports the demand for rubber
.
According to monitoring, the overall operating rate of the domestic tire market has increased to 66%, the operating rate of all-steel tires is 72%, the operating rate of semi-steel tires is 65%, and the operating rate of bias tires is 61%.
To sum up, at present, the commodity line is picking up, and the recovery of capital inflow has also greatly driven the liquidity of rubber plate funds, and the change of rubber positions is mainly
net space to increase positions.
In general, after a series of sharp declines in February and March, Shanghai rubber has returned to the price of November last year, and it may continue to rebound in the near future, and it is recommended to wait for the short opportunity
of weak rebound.
Shanghai rubber may bottom out in April, and the rebound is expected to be around 5
%.
