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Copper prices retreated on Wednesday as a higher dollar led to profit-taking, but low inventories and optimism that stimulus and economic growth would boost demand prospects supported sentiment
.
London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper fell 0.
2% to $
8,390 a tonne.
Copper hit a nine-year high of $8,437 on Tuesday
.
ING analysts said copper inventories were generally low
.
Normally, inventories would have increased before the Chinese New Year holiday, but this has not happened, and the reflation narrative is deeply entrenched, and the US decision to move forward with a massive stimulus package may further reinforce this narrative
.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, dampening demand
.
COPPER STOCKS IN LME REGISTERED WAREHOUSES AT MCUSTX-TOTAL, AT 76,175 TONNES, HAVE INCREASED SINCE LAST WEEK BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 15-YEAR LOW HIT LAST SEPTEMBER
.
Low inventories have heightened concerns about copper supply in the LME market, resulting in spot copper rising to three-month copper CMCU0-3
.
Premiums rose as high as a five-month high of $29 a tonne on Monday, and were last quoted at about $
13.
Copper stocks in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's monitored warehouses, CU-SRX-SGH, have fallen 60 percent to less than 80,000 tonnes
since last September.
Citi analysts said in a note that the updated copper supply-demand balance model shows that there will be a severe shortage in 2021 and inventories will be at low levels
in the coming years.
Accordingly, the (copper price forecast) for the next 6-12 months is revised upwards to $
10,000 per tonne.
