High inventory clouds are not dispersed, PVC spot fast in and fast out

Up to now, the mainstream of calcium carbide type five in the East China market is 6400-6500 yuan / ton for cash withdrawal, and the mainstream of ethylene is 7100-7200 yuan / ton to be delivered; In the South China market, the mainstream of calcium carbide type 5 is 6400-6500 yuan / ton for spot pickup, and the mainstream of ethylene is 7000-7100 yuan / ton for spot pickup
.

The domestic PVC market is mainly stable, and market sentiment has rebounded
to a certain extent.
After rising for 3 consecutive days, it was slightly weak, and the spot market transaction was acceptable
.
The willingness of downstream speculative replenishment is not high, and the proportion of on-demand procurement is large
.
At present, the start of tourism has fully recovered, but the social treasury inventory is healthy to turnover, but the high inventory is still there, and the
big rise is still difficult to cash.
Although there will be a large number of overhauls in April and May, when the supply will decrease, the terminal operating rate of North and South China is already at the peak season level, which is conducive to inventory reduction
.
Continue to monitor inventory decomposition
.

It is expected that the rate of inventory dematerialization in the next two weeks will be significantly higher than the same period
last year.
This may have led to a revision of demand from pessimism to optimism
.
In the future, if the upstream maintenance begins, the speed of inventory dematerialization may be accelerated
.
This may be the reason for
the recent sharp rebound in futures.
However, considering that current inventories are still much higher than in the same period, once the destocking slows, the market's expectations for demand may be revised
again.

In terms of the impact of pick-up, the main contract is expected to turn to 1809 immediately, and the risk factor increases
.
In the current situation of high social inventory, the rebound of the Bo band can be broad, and the spot will be fast forward and fast out
.

In terms of investment, in the short term, the cloud of high inventory has not dissipated
.
In the context of obviously high inventories, it is difficult for both futures and cash to have a large increase
.
However, the pattern of improving supply and demand in the medium and long term has not changed, and we still recommend investors to buy
on the dip.