High inventories are difficult to digest, and the main force of Shanghai copper rushed back to the top

Market Focus: (1) The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's overall corporate activity condition index climbed to 12.
9 from 4.
8 in January, the orders index surged to its best level since September 2017, and shipments rose to its highest
level since 2018.
(2) On the 18th, there were 56 new confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas across the country, falling
for the 15th consecutive day.

Spot analysis: On February 19, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 45960-46030 yuan / ton, with an average price of 45995 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 45 yuan / ton
.
In the context of high inventory and difficulty in digesting in the spot market, the morning market quotation directly pointed to a discount of 200 yuan / ton, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry increased, and the willingness of some enterprises in Jiangsu to enter the market also improved
significantly.
However, due to high inventory, it is difficult to improve short-term digestion, and it may be difficult to stop the pace of expansion of spot
discounts.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 159217 tons on Wednesday, an increase of 2 tons per day, an increase of 16 consecutive days; On February 18, LME copper stocks were 166475 tonnes, up 5,075 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2004 contracts were 65440 lots, an increase of 180 lots per day, 83222 short positions, a daily increase of 827 lots, a net short position of 17782 lots, a daily increase of 647 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On February 19, the main force of Shanghai copper 2004 rushed to the high correction
.
As of the 18th, the number of new confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas of China has decreased for 15 consecutive days, and the new confirmed cases in other provinces other than Hubei are in single digits; The national epidemic situation is showing a downward trend, and downstream copper companies have started work one after another, which is conducive to demand recovery; And due to the influence of logistics control, the sulfuric acid expansion of copper smelters has intensified, the price of sulfuric acid has declined, production profits have been compressed, and smelters have reduced production, which is good for copper prices
.
However, strong US economic data and pressure on non-US currencies continued to climb the US dollar; And the recent Shanghai copper inventory continued immediately, reaching a three-year high, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
In terms of spot, the spot market is difficult to digest in the context of high inventory, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry has increased, and the willingness of some enterprises in Jiangsu to enter the market has also improved significantly, but due to high inventory, it is difficult to improve short-term digestion capacity, and it is difficult to stop the pace of expansion of spot
discounts.
Technically, the main 2004 contract of Shanghai copper increased its position, and the daily MACD indicator golden cross, it is expected that the short-term volatility is strong
.