"heavily clouded!

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the surge in natural gas and crude oil prices will have any impact on the polyurethane raw material industry?

Upstream feedstock prices: Given Russia's far-reaching influence on global commodity markets, global geopolitical tensions and high risk premiums for all commodities are likely to persist for an extended period of time
.
China's resource endowment is rich in coal and lean in oil, and coal production capacity is generally controllable, so prices are expected to be maintained within a reasonable range under the policy of ensuring supply
.
However, China's crude oil and natural gas are highly dependent on foreign countries, and the price will still be greatly affected by the international market, or affect the prices of upstream raw materials of TDI and MDI, toluene, pure benzene, and upstream raw materials of PO, propylene and liquid chlorine
.

The International Energy Agency released the "Monthly Oil Market Report" in February, arguing that the oil market has only a small buffer capacity, and if OPEC continues to experience difficulties in increasing production, the supply shortage will intensify
.
At the same time, the market was highly sensitive to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, which pushed international oil prices to rise broadly
.
With the surge in crude oil, which is good for the market mentality, shipments in some parts of the country have improved, and the low-end offers of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and propylene have increased at different levels
.

Export of polyurethane raw materials: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues or escalates, and the business of various suppliers to Russia, Ukraine and other Eastern European countries may be suspended, but the route for exporting domestic polyurethane raw materials to other European countries is mainly from the Mediterranean Sea to Rotterdam in the Netherlands , so there should be no particular impact on exports to other European countries
.
From the perspective of export demand, in 2021, China's main polyurethane raw material exports to Russia/Ukraine and other Eastern European countries accounted for the total (TDI: 6.
1%, polymerized MDI: 4.
0%, pure MDI: 6.
6%, polyether polyol Alcohol 5.
8%), the overall shipment volume is not high, and the impact level is not large
.
(The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict is more on the flow of road and rail cargo, as well as sea and air cargo
.
The Romanian port of Constanta (the largest port on the Black Sea) faces a very high risk of disruption, causing delays of several days, risk and further The upgrade is commensurate
.
This also applies to Romanian and Moldovan ports in the Danube Delta
.
Disruptions in the movement of goods at the Romanian port of Constanta could affect various sectors
.
This could create bottlenecks, leading to the Bulgarian port of Varna and the road between Bulgaria and Romania Shipping delays up to several days
.
)

Production of polyurethane raw materials in Europe: It is understood that at present, the war incident has not had a direct and immediate impact on local production units such as MDI and TDI polyether.
If natural gas prices continue to rise or remain high, it will increase the price of local polyurethane raw materials in Europe in the future.
It is possible, but the impact on the operation and output of local production facilities is low
.
It is also reported that Dow's MDI production unit with a capacity of 190,000 tons/year in Stade, Germany has been shut down this week, and Dow's MDI production unit with a capacity of 180,000 tons/year in Estareja, Portugal was not on schedule this week.
It was restarted after maintenance, but the specific reasons for the parking of these two factories were not disclosed by the factory
.