Gu Zongqin: The environment facing the development of methanol industry is severe and complex

On July 20, Gu Zongqin, chairman of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, pointed out at the 2022 China Methanol Industry Conference held in Jinan, Shandong that due to the special properties of methanol products, it is not only a widely used basic chemical raw material, but also an important energy source.

In terms of the international environment, Gu Zongqin analyzed that, first, the fluctuation of international energy prices

Since August 2021, under the dual effects of tight supply and strong demand, global natural gas prices have been soaring, which has led to tight coal and oil supplies, and led to record highs in natural gas, coal and crude oil prices

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the impact of oil and natural gas on the methanol industry mainly comes from the supply side of raw materials

In terms of natural gas, the continuous advancement of global energy cleanup and the rapid growth of the world economy will increase the demand for natural gas, which will affect the price of international gas methanol products and their competitiveness in the Chinese market, and will also affect the balance of supply and demand in the domestic market

Gu Zongqin pointed out that the geopolitical events in Russia and Ukraine have become one of the dominant factors affecting the international market and have triggered chain changes in trade flows, of which Europe will be the most obvious

The average price of methanol in Europe has always been at a high level in the world, and the profit-seeking of methanol cargoes in the Americas, the Middle East and other regions will also become more significant

In terms of the domestic environment, Gu Zongqin said, first, the dual-carbon goal leads the transformation and upgrading of the industry and high-quality development

　　Since China proposed the dual carbon goal, the national and local governments have successively issued relevant policies, and control measures have been implemented one after another, especially in terms of energy consumption control

　　However, in the "Energy Efficiency Benchmark Level and Benchmark Level (2021 Edition)" issued by five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission at the end of last year, the benchmark level and benchmark level for coal-to-methanol is much higher than the current national standard

　　Gu Zongqin pointed out that this year's government work report of the National Two Sessions also mentioned that it is necessary to "resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming, high-emission, and low-level projects

　　Gu Zongqin said that since 2021, due to the increase in international energy prices, and because the growth rate of domestic raw coal production is lower than that of downstream demand, coal supply and demand are in a tight balance, and coal prices are on the rise as a whole.

　　According to the statistics of China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the ex-factory price of gasified bituminous coal was around 1,350 yuan/ton in early July