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Beijing time on Monday (June 25), according to Bloomberg news, Goldman Sachs reported that the latest agreement between OPEC and its allies is seen as covering up differences within the bloc and may become a potential beginning for the disintegration of the alliance, with core OPEC members and Russia hoping to increase production, but Iran opposed
.
Analyst Damien Courvalin and others wrote in a June 22 report that the 700,000 b/d increase in production may only be gradual, thus approaching the base case
of Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 550,000 b/d increase in the third quarter.
Although the fourth quarter could exceed 550,000 b/d, Goldman Sachs believes Iranian production may be lower than assumed; As a result, oil price forecasts and outlooks remain unchanged
.
Even in the possible scenario of more aggressive production, Goldman Sachs does not believe that OPEC+'s decision could cause a significant reversal
in fundamentals.
If OPEC makes up the production gap (700,000 b/d) throughout the second half of 2018 and Russia adds 200,000 b/d, Goldman Sachs expects the market to be only slightly more than 100,000 b/d
.
However, this will require a production increase unprecedented in core OPEC and Russia, and leave the market largely unstaffed
.
Markets may have reflected an increase in OPEC output of 800,000 b/d to 900,000 b/d
.
While OPEC's announcement of a deal may have relieved markets, evidence continues to support Goldman Sachs' belief that the market is still undersupplied, crude inventories are accelerating again, and the risk of supply disruptions remains high
.
Beijing time on Monday (June 25), according to Bloomberg news, Goldman Sachs reported that the latest agreement between OPEC and its allies is seen as covering up differences within the bloc and may become a potential beginning for the disintegration of the alliance, with core OPEC members and Russia hoping to increase production, but Iran opposed
.
Analyst Damien Courvalin and others wrote in a June 22 report that the 700,000 b/d increase in production may only be gradual, thus approaching the base case
of Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 550,000 b/d increase in the third quarter.
Although the fourth quarter could exceed 550,000 b/d, Goldman Sachs believes Iranian production may be lower than assumed; As a result, oil price forecasts and outlooks remain unchanged
.
Even in the possible scenario of more aggressive production, Goldman Sachs does not believe that OPEC+'s decision could cause a significant reversal
in fundamentals.
If OPEC makes up the production gap (700,000 b/d) throughout the second half of 2018 and Russia adds 200,000 b/d, Goldman Sachs expects the market to be only slightly more than 100,000 b/d
.
However, this will require a production increase unprecedented in core OPEC and Russia, and leave the market largely unstaffed
.
Markets may have reflected an increase in OPEC output of 800,000 b/d to 900,000 b/d
.
While OPEC's announcement of a deal may have relieved markets, evidence continues to support Goldman Sachs' belief that the market is still undersupplied, crude inventories are accelerating again, and the risk of supply disruptions remains high
.
