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The price of glyphosate rose again last week
.
According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, the 95% raw powder supplier quotation of glyphosate rose to 50,000~55,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the FOB price was US$8,000; the actual transaction reference price was 49,500 to 50,000 yuan.
As for the market outlook, industry insiders believe that the prices of agricultural products are rising, downstream demand is strong, and the supply side is limited due to overseas epidemic production, and the prices of upstream raw materials continue to rise.
It is expected that the price of glyphosate will continue to rise in the short term
.
Raw material prices rise
Rising raw material prices Rising raw material pricesIn recent years, many small and medium-sized glyphosate companies such as Jiangxi Jinlong Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
and Fujian Sannong Chemical Pesticide Co.
, Ltd.
have been shut down or merged.
Under this background, China's glyphosate production capacity has been reduced by more than 300,000 tons per year.
The number of enterprises has been reduced to about 10
.
As of the end of 2020, China's total production capacity of glyphosate was 670,000 tons per year
In addition to the withdrawal of the production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, the rising prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and glycine also supported the rise of the glyphosate market
.
It is understood that yellow phosphorus accounts for about 20% of the cost of glyphosate
.
In the first half of the year, Yunnan’s power generation was seriously lower than expected.
Glycine, another process raw material, was also affected by the environmental protection inspection in Shandong and the traffic control measures issued by Hebei.
Some production companies were restricted from operating, and the production of raw materials such as acetic acid, liquid chlorine, and synthetic ammonia fluctuated at a high level.
The cost side supported the increase in the price of glycine
.
As of July 2, the price of glycine in the North China market rose to 21,200 yuan
Overall, the decline in operating rates and the rise in raw materials have supported the increase in domestic glyphosate prices
.
Increase in foreign demand
Increase in foreign demand, increase in foreign demandFrom a macro perspective, the continuation of monetary easing policies in developed economies has increased capital risk appetite and promoted the price increase of bulk agricultural products.
Farmers have a strong willingness to plant, and the expansion of crop planting areas has led to an increase in demand for glyphosate
.
According to statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, international agricultural product prices have maintained an upward trend for 12 consecutive months
.
As of the week of July 2, corn prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have increased by 11.
Rising prices of agricultural products have led to a substantial increase in foreign demand for glyphosate
.
However, due to the repeated global epidemic, the start of factories in the United States, Brazil and other places was blocked, and overseas purchases have been increased.
Industry insiders believe that due to the early downturn in the glyphosate market, there is basically no new investment, and the market supply continues to shrink
.
At the same time, Bayer will implement the new preparation price on July 19, which is a 20% increase from the previous price.
Forward market under pressure
Forward market under pressure Forward market under pressure From the perspective of market circulation, the current orders for glyphosate companies have been scheduled to September
.
In fact, this sort of list situation has been relatively rare in recent years
According to Baichuan Yingfu's analysis, manufacturers currently focus on fulfilling orders and can accept new orders in a small amount, which shows that the supply is in short supply
.
Overall, the glyphosate market will be adjusted at a high level, but even if the price is high, it will not immediately decline
.
The staff of the Securities Department of Jiangshan Co.
, Ltd.
said that the current dealers have less inventory, and the company's production is mainly completed by short orders, which is one of the factors that promote the increase in the price of glyphosate
.
However, the price of glyphosate, which is at a high level in the later period, cannot continue to rise.
After all, there are alternative products for glyphosate such as glufosinate-ammonium and sulfentrazone
.
Yang Yijun, general manager of Anhui Zhongnong Zongheng Agrochemical Information Consulting Co.
, Ltd.
believes that paraquat is a non-selective herbicide.
In 2020, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Notice on Effectively Strengthening the Special Remediation of Paraquat".
The legal production of paraquat by domestic enterprises is limited to Export
.
Affected by this, the systemic broad-spectrum herbicide glyphosate has become a substitute.
At the same time, countries (regions) where the use of paraquat is prohibited and restricted internationally also has a demand for glyphosate substitution to fill part of the market where paraquat has withdrawn.
This has also become glyphosate.
An important factor in the rising price of phosphine
.
From the perspective of action type, glufosinate is a broad-spectrum contact herbicide, which can partially replace glyphosate according to needs, and diquat can also partially replace paraquat.
These two products can relieve the glyphosate market to a certain extent.
Demand pressure
.
In the long run, the market trend is still determined by supply and demand.
The price of glyphosate cannot rise endlessly, and the risk of falling is also accumulating
.
