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At the end of last week, China's targeted RRR cut, the Fed unexpectedly adjusted interest rates to 0 at one time, and with a sharp QE, global monetary easing resumed, aluminum prices rebounded
slightly.
But the current problem is not in the money supply, but in the impact of the epidemic on credit demand, macro sentiment after partial digestion of aluminum prices are still weak, today aluminum ingot inventory of more than 1.
6 million tons, follow-up inventory is expected to have a certain pressure on aluminum prices, in the short term aluminum prices are difficult to rise
sharply.
Although the central banks issued policies to calm the market on Friday, the epidemic has not been significantly contained, and the United States and EU countries are still in the early stages of the outbreak, a large amount of realistic evidence shows that the outbreak is only a matter of time, it is expected that the situation in Europe and the United States next week is still not optimistic, the probability will worsen, and the stock market plunge may be inevitable
.
Last week, the Fed urgently and unexpectedly cut interest rates, and next week the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, and the market expects that interest rate
cuts will continue to be highlighted.
In terms of industry, the accumulation of factory warehouses at the current stage is still relatively large, and the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, resulting in insufficient aluminum processing orders, insufficient consumption makes the accumulation of warehouses maintain a high speed, and it is expected that the accumulation situation next week will remain relatively grim
.
In terms of the market, domestic downstream starts are further recovering, but spot inventories have not yet shown a downward trend
.
The profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting began to enter the cash cost, and the refinery did not reduce production
for the time being.
Looking forward to next week, there are big differences in the prevention and control ideas between China and the West in terms of the epidemic, with the United Kingdom and Sweden even abandoning testing, and some countries moving slowly, resulting in a high rate of spread
.
Trump declared a state of emergency, testing was basically liberalized, and a large number of confirmed cases are expected next week
.
In general, the speed of containment of the epidemic in Europe and the United States is significantly slower than that of China, and it is likely that many countries will replicate the development of the epidemic in Italy, and eventually the global economy will have a serious impact
.
The epidemic will continue to break out in Europe and the United States, the market risk aversion is high, and the probability of black swan phenomenon is relatively large; The recovery of real economic demand is slow, aluminum consumption is insufficient, the arrival of factory warehouses makes it difficult to reduce the pressure of accumulation, and the risk of the peripheral market inducing a sharp downward trend in the aluminum market is greater
.
