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Weak seasonal consumption led to a slight decline in copper prices, but due to the slow repair of copper concentrate TC, global electrolytic copper inventories were low, and copper prices had relatively limited room for decline, with lower support at 57,000 yuan / ton
.
Under the Spring Festival effect, domestic consumption weakened, and the center of gravity of copper prices was expected to move down slightly, but due to low global inventories, copper prices were expected to fall by a limited
margin.
On the macro front, the US dollar index fell sharply in 2020 due to an unprecedented scale of loose fiscal and monetary policies and poor epidemic prevention, reaching a low of 89.
206
.
At present, US policy continues to be accommodative, and the Fed emphasizes that it is premature to reduce asset purchases, and does not consider raising interest rates
for the time being.
Yellen supports a massive stimulus package in a low interest rate environment, and the United States is expected to land new fiscal stimulus
in the first quarter.
The dollar rebound is relatively limited under loose fiscal and monetary policies, but the US economy is stronger than Europe under the increase in fiscal stimulus, so the dollar index or bottom is strongly oscillating, which has a neutral and bearish
impact on copper prices.
In terms of inventory, smelters basically maintained normal production during the Spring Festival, while downstream copper processing enterprises had holidays of different durations, so in previous years, there were 5-6 weeks of continuous accumulation in China before and after the Spring Festival
.
At present, the weakening of domestic consumption is not as good as in previous years, and the domestic accumulation is not obvious
.
LME copper stocks have continued to fall since October last year and are now less than 80,000 tonnes
.
Inventories of the three major exchanges and the Shanghai Free Trade Zone fell by about
140,000 tons compared with the same period last year.
Since global inventories are at a low level, if there is no large-scale accumulation in China, it will have little negative impact on copper prices
.
In summary, the weakening of seasonal consumption has led to a slight decline in copper prices, but due to the slow repair of copper concentrate TC and low global electrolytic copper inventories, copper prices have relatively limited room for decline
.
Long and short factors are intertwined, copper prices continue to run strongly without obvious decline, high long and short game increases, it is expected that the copper price oscillation in February is weak, and the lower support is 57,000 yuan / ton
.
