Geopolitical conflict changes crude oil supply and demand The demand for enterprise risk management surges

With further geopolitical tensions, market concerns about crude oil supply are increasing
.
Oil prices rushed rapidly after entering March, WTI crude oil prices have refreshed 11-year highs, the supply and demand pattern of the crude oil market is facing the possibility of reshaping, transportation risks have led to a 5-fold increase in shipping costs from Russia to Europe in a short period of time, and Russian Urals oil has a discount of more than $22 compared with the world's main indicator Brent crude oil
.
In order to guard against risks, some crude oil buyers have to abandon the Russian market and seek resources in other regions, and the additional demand has driven the sharp strengthening of the spot market discount in the Middle East, close to the historical extreme
.

In order to alleviate the upward pressure on oil prices caused by the warming situation in Russia and Ukraine, the International Energy Agency urgently passed a 60 million barrels strategic crude oil release plan, hoping to stabilize oil prices
.
However, market participants generally believe that this is not enough to make up for the potential supply gap
after Russia has been sanctioned.
The just-concluded monthly meeting of the OPEC+ alliance agreed to stick to the plan of a small increase in production in April, and at a time when crude oil prices soared, the meeting did not heed the calls of consumer countries to
increase crude oil production.

In general, during the tight crude oil supply period, almost all global financial markets are closely watching the progress of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and other influencing factors have temporarily taken a back seat
.
The WTO is concerned about the impact of the conflict on global trade, especially agricultural and food trade, and the impact of rising energy prices, and all countries hope for a peaceful and quick solution
between Russia and Ukraine.

Now the spot procurement of crude oil, not only to bear the absolute price of high, but also to bear the high level of discounts, the supply of goods is still very tight, which leads to downstream consumer countries facing a severe test
.
In addition, after the sharp rise in crude oil prices, it is difficult for downstream refined oil and chemical prices to match the increase in crude oil, and the market has begun to worry about the high crude oil and continuously compressing the profits of refining enterprises, and the demand for enterprise risk management has also increased
significantly.

It is worth mentioning that Brent, WTI and other international crude oil and the Middle East oil price difference relationship stability is poor, and in the past year to the Middle East medium sulfurous crude oil as the delivery oil in China's SC crude oil and the Middle East crude oil price structure to maintain a high degree of stability, the actual price difference trend and fluctuation range of the two basically in line with SC crude oil = Middle East crude oil + cost (freight, insurance, loading and unloading, etc.
) This theoretical spread formula, is a good choice for risk management in China and the entire Northeast Asia crude oil industry
。