Futures Weekly Report (8.1-8.5)

　　Methanol: high and falling

Last week, methanol futures were weak and loose

In terms of start-up, the overall start-up load of methanol production units was 64.

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market sentiment has cooled down again, and the regional trend is differentiated

On the downstream side, the average operating load of coal (methanol)-to-olefins units has gradually dropped recently to 74.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas continued to increase, accumulating to 1.

On the whole, methanol futures rose and fell, and the disk surface was under pressure and fell

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

　　PTA: Slightly down

Last week, purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures market prices fell mainly

On the cost side, the economic recession has affected the demand for crude oil, putting pressure on crude oil prices

　　In terms of supply, due to the shutdown of Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.

　　On the demand side, polyester loading was 80.

　　On the whole, the PTA load continued to decline, and the demand increased slowly.

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Soda ash: Shock and fall

　　Last week, soda ash futures hit a high and met resistance, stopped rising and stabilized and turned back down

　　On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash manufacturers fell last week to 76.

　　In terms of inventory, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies last week was about 530,000 tons, an increase of 8% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 45.

　　In terms of supply and demand, the domestic soda ash market is running weakly

　　In terms of spot, it is expected that the supply and demand relationship of soda ash in the third quarter may change from oversupply to balance between supply and demand, or even tight supply and demand

　　Looking at the market outlook, the market price of soda ash is at a high level, the profits of the downstream glass industry continue to be compressed, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Natural rubber: Narrow finishing

　　Last week, natural rubber futures fell into a narrow range of regional convergence
.
As of August 5, Hujiao RU2209 closed up 120 yuan to 12,100 yuan, an increase of 1%; No.
20 rubber NR2210 closed up 95 yuan to 10,500 yuan, an increase of 0.
92%
.

　　In terms of supply, the supply of domestic rubber has gradually increased, and the supply pressure has gradually increased
.
Internationally, the repeated and changeable rainfall in Southeast Asian production areas has significantly increased the impact on rubber tapping work, and the supply is still increasing seasonally
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of August 5, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 2,422 tons to 280,900 tons; the inventory of TSR 20 increased by 1,168 tons to 75,600 tons, and the pressure on spot inventory increased
.
At the same time, overseas natural rubber production has increased, and the amount of natural rubber diverted to China has increased
.

　　On the downstream side, tire companies restarted after equipment maintenance, but terminal consumption was still weak
.
It is expected that the operating rate of domestic tire companies will be repaired and adjusted, and the increase in the overall operating rate will be limited
.

　　In the market outlook, the supply of natural rubber at home and abroad has entered a period of full opening and cutting, and the rainfall has changed repeatedly, and the effect on rubber tapping has changed
.
The prosperity of the downstream tire industry is weakening, and the consumption of the automobile industry is sluggish, but it has stabilized due to the boost of policies
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Polyolefins: Shock weakened

　　Last week, the polyolefin futures market fluctuated and weakened
.
The linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) 2209 contract closed at 7,787 yuan, a weekly decline of 3.
66%; the polypropylene (PP) 2209 contract closed at 7,883 yuan, a weekly decline of 2.
86%
.

　　In terms of spot, the price of polyolefin fell and weakened after fluctuating
.
As of August 5, the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 7900-8250 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply and demand, equipment maintenance and restart coexist, and the supply of polyolefins continues to drop slightly.
It is expected that the supply will remain at a low level in the short term
.
As of August 4, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) was 71.
95%, down 0.
43%; the operating rate of PP was 78.
65%, down 2.
72%

　　In terms of demand, the demand for shed film has improved, but the follow-up of new orders is relatively limited.
In the short term, other downstream demand has not seen obvious signs of improvement.
Downstream factories are still cautious, and they mainly focus on just-needed procurement
.

　　In terms of inventory, PE social inventory was 173,810 tons, an increase of 3,120 tons; PP social inventory was 44,790 tons, an increase of 3,290 tons
.

　　On the whole, the supply of polyolefins continues to decline slightly, especially the maintenance volume of PP units continues to increase, which supports the continued widening of the PP/LLDPE price gap.
However, downstream demand is unlikely to ease in the short term, and polyolefins maintain a weak supply and demand pattern.
It is expected that polyolefins will be short-term maintain low volatility
.

　　(Feng Xiaofen in the middle of Founder)