Futures Weekly Report (6.13-6.17)

　　Methanol: the center of gravity dips

　　Last week, the methanol futures market fell under pressure, with a minimum of 2,732 yuan (ton price, the same below)
.
The spot price of methanol gradually loosened
.
As of the close on June 17, the intertemporal spread between 2209 and 2201 contracts was -116 yuan, and the spot and methanol main contract 2209 were at a narrow discount compared with the basis difference of -21 yuan
.

　　In terms of operating rate, on June 16, the overall operating rate of methanol was 72.
06%, down 1.
7 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　On the downstream side, the average operating rate of coal (methanol)-to-olefins units was 85.
51%, up 1.
56 percentage points from the previous month
.
The capacity utilization of emerging demand is relatively full, and the purchase of methanol is stable
.
The traditional demand industry has not improved significantly, dimethyl ether and acetic acid have begun to increase in a narrow range, and formaldehyde and methyl tertiary butyl ether have fallen
.

　　In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas increased to 1.
0959 million tons, up 18,400 tons from the previous month
.
The overall tradable supply of methanol is around 304,000 tons
.

　　On the whole, the emerging demand for methanol downstream is acceptable, and there is no obvious improvement in the traditional demand industry for methanol
.
It is expected that methanol futures prices may continue to drop, forming support at 2,600-2,680 yuan
.

　　(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

　　PTA: mainly down

　　Last week, purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures prices were mostly lower
.
As of the close on June 17, the TA2209 contract closed at 6,980 yuan, a weekly drop of 7.
18%
.
The spot price of PTA fell 380 yuan to close at 7150 yuan
.

　　In terms of cost, crude oil prices fell sharply, which was bad for PTA prices
.
The paraxylene (PX) unit operating rate for the week was 83.
8%, down 1.
8% on the week
.

　　In terms of supply, the PTA operating rate was 76.
6%, up 2.
5 percentage points from the previous week
.

　　In terms of demand, the maintenance of polyester equipment has been relatively concentrated recently, mainly involving filament, staple fiber, and film.
During the same period, the operation of some factories increased slightly, which moderately offset the impact of equipment maintenance
.
The operating rate of polyester is 84%, but the production and sales of polyester are not good, and some equipment maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled, resulting in low polyester construction, large inventory accumulation, and weak enthusiasm for price locking of raw materials in polyester factories
.

　　On the whole, affected by the maintenance of polyester equipment, the demand dropped slightly, and the destocking of PTA's social inventory was greatly reduced
.
It is expected that the price of PTA will show a volatile and weak trend in general
.

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Soda Ash: Weak Operation

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market was weak with regional shocks
.
As of the close on June 17, SA2209 closed down 23 yuan to 2,887 yuan, a weekly drop of 0.
79%
.

　　In terms of supply, the operating rate of the soda ash industry last week was 86.
5%, down 1.
5% from the previous month; the output of soda ash manufacturers was 580,000 tons
.

　　In terms of inventory, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 420,000 tons, down 2.
6% from the previous month
.

　　In terms of installations, the start-up of individual enterprises fluctuated
.
Due to the lucrative profits of soda plants this year, the decline in soda ash production is limited, and some soda plants have postponed maintenance or shortened the number of maintenance days
.

　　On the downstream side, the demand is stable and rising, and the export situation is good
.
Terminal glass production remained rigid, the resumption of float glass production lines and the new production lines of photovoltaic glass continued to increase, and the demand for light alkali recovered
.

　　On the whole, the current raw material inventory of soda ash factory warehouse and glass factory is relatively low, and float glass maintains a rigid demand for soda ash purchase
.
The construction of photovoltaic bases and the maintenance of soda ash installations during the high temperature period are expected to heat up, soda ash profits are high, while downstream glass and other industries have lower profits, and the float glass industry is facing industry-wide losses
.
It is expected that soda ash futures are likely to maintain regional shocks
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Natural rubber: weak finishing

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market was weak and fluctuated regionally
.
As of the close on June 17, Hujiao RU2209 closed down 10 yuan to 12,800 yuan; No.
20 rubber NR2208 closed up 15 yuan to 11,100 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, domestic production areas have entered a period of full opening and cutting
.
The weakening of rainfall in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and other producing areas is favorable for rubber tapping; rubber tapping in Malaysia and Indonesia production areas is normal
.

　　In terms of inventory, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 1,402 tons to 276,800 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber decreased by 6,734 tons to 93,300 tons
.

　　On the downstream side, the operating rate of domestic tire companies recovered recovery last week
.
On June 16, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 58.
97%, an increase of 5.
94% from June 9; the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 64.
71%, an increase of 1.
35% from June 9
.

　　On the whole, the supply of natural rubber has increased, downstream tire sales have recovered, and automobile consumption has been sluggish
.
However, it has stabilized due to the boost of policies, and the supply and demand have changed repeatedly.
It is expected that natural rubber will maintain a regional shock and consolidation trend
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Polyolefins: Lightening Down

　　Last week, the polyolefin futures market lightened down
.
As of the close on June 17, the linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) 2209 contract closed at 8,696 yuan, a weekly drop of 4.
45%; the polypropylene (PP) 2209 contract closed at 8,551 yuan, a weekly drop of 4.
16%
.

　　In terms of spot, the LLDPE market fell mainly
.
The mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8650~9300 yuan
.
PP market mentality is not good, the price is down, the mainstream price of wire drawing in North China is 8560~8650 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply and demand, device restarts and overhauls coexisted, and the supply side fell slightly
.
On June 16, the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) was 80.
86%, down 1.
07 percentage points from the previous month; the operating rate of PP was 81.
26%, down 3.
26 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　On the demand side, the downstream operating rate was mixed, the demand recovery was slow, and corporate orders did not change significantly
.

　　In terms of inventory, the main producers' inventory was 785,000 tons, the PE social inventory was 193,300 tons, and the PP social inventory was 40,900 tons
.

　　On the whole, there are not many polyolefins restarted recently, the supply has dropped slightly, and the demand has not improved significantly.
It is expected that the downstream polyolefins will not change much
.

　　(Feng Xiaofen in the middle of Founder)