Futures Weekly Report (5.16-5.20)

Methanol: Range-bound

Last week, methanol futures fell under pressure, and stepped back to support near 2,680 yuan (ton price, the same below) and gradually stopped falli.

In terms of supply, as of May 19, the operating rate of the methanol industry was 714%, an increase of 56 percentage points from the previous mon.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventories in coastal areas continued to rise slowly, increasing to 941,000 tons, up 50,000 tons from the previous month and up 146% year-on-ye.

On the downstream side, the downstream market maintains the rhythm of just-needed procurement, and further improvement is limit.

On the whole, the supply and demand side of the methanol market is under pressure, and the methanol futures price is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the short term, with the center of gravity fluctuating between 2,680 and 2,850 yu.

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

PTA: high consolidation

Last week, purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures prices were mainly high and consolidati.

In terms of supply, the PTA installations remained basically unchanged, with a slight increase in the load of individual installatio.

In terms of demand, some companies have plans to overhaul or reduce production, but in the same period, there are also devices that have been opened one after another or their load has been increased, including local operating rates of filament and staple fiber, which have been adjusted to varying degre.

On the whole, affected by the sluggish demand for PTA, the price increase of PTA has not been as strong as that of paraxylene (PX), which has greatly reduced the processing fee of P.

(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: Weak shock

Last week, the polyolefin futures market was dominated by weak shoc.

In terms of spot, the LLDPE market continued to fall, with a drop of 20-200 yu.

In terms of inventory, as of May 20, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, the social inventory of polyethylene (PE) was 183,600 tons, and the social inventory of PP was 46,900 to.

In terms of supply and demand, some maintenance devices have been restarted, resulting in a marginal increase in producti.

In terms of demand, the operating rate of agricultural film was 15%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of packaging, monofilament, film, hollow, pipe, and plastic weaving was the same as the previous week; the operating rate of injection molding was 49%, down from the previous we.

On the whole, the supply side has increased slightly, the demand has not recovered significantly, and the performance has not been as good as expect.

(Feng Xiaofen in the middle of Founder)

Natural rubber: stable, medium and small

Last week, under the influence of positive factors in the supply and demand relationship, natural rubber futures continued to unilaterally stabilize and rebound slight.

In terms of supply, domestic production areas have entered a period of full opening and cutti.

Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and other production areas experienced continuous rainfall, which affected rubber tapping; Malaysia and Indonesia production areas were norm.

Short-term rainfall has an impact on production, and supply fluctuates, which has an excessive effect on the relationship between supply and dema.

In terms of inventory, as of May 20, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 2,224 tons to 269,300 tons; the inventory of TSR 20 increased by 5,686 tons to 102,400 to.

Futures and spot arbitrage aggravates the pressure on futures inventories, which suppresses futures prices and diverts inventories, which is less bullish for current pric.

On the downstream side, the operating rate of tire companies has increased, and the shortage situation has eas.

The repeated epidemics in many places in China have inhibited the increase in terminal demand, and the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has dropped in an all-round w.

As of May 19, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires was 553%, down 11% from 564% on May 12; the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 62%, up 51 from 649% on May 12.

On the whole, the international and domestic epidemic situation is severe, downstream tire and automobile sales are sluggish, and supply and demand are changi.

Natural rubber is expected to maintain a regional shock consolidation tre.

(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

Soda ash: shock recovery

Last week, soda ash futures continued to rebound with unilateral shocks, boosted by positive supply and demand facto.

As of the close on May 20, SA2209 closed up 39 yuan to 2,986 yu.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 766,700 tons, a decrease of 110,300 tons from the previous we.

Inventory pressure has eased, supply and demand tend to balan.

The pressure of futures warehouse receipts is heavy, which has a suppressive effect on futures pric.

On the supply side, the output of soda ash manufacturers last week was 570,000 to.

The operating rate of soda ash production enterprises fluctuates, and there is no new maintenance plan for the time being, and the operating rate is stable and risi.

The average operating rate of the soda ash industry last week was 89%, up 3% from the previous we.

Among them, the average operating rate of ammonia-alkali factories is 82%, the average operating rate of combined alkali factories is 81%, and the average operating rate of trona factories is 10

　　In terms of supply and demand, production enterprises shipped normally, orders were fulfilled, production and sales of low inventory enterprises tended to balance, and inventory of high inventory enterprises decreased significant.

　　In terms of installations, some companies have maintenance plans, involving a total production capacity of 9 million to.

　　On the whole, the operating rate of soda ash manufacturers fluctuated at a high level, the superimposed equipment was overhauled, the space for continued growth was limited, and the inventory continued to shri.

Local real estate stabilization policies have been introduced, the cold repair of glass production equipment is expected to weaken, and the demand for soda ash stocking has increas.

Soda ash futures are expected to maintain strong regional volatili.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)