Futures Weekly Report (3.7-3.11)

Methanol: Upward pressure

In terms of spot, the overall methanol spot market sentiment improved, and the price center of gravity moved up

In terms of supply, as of March 10, the operating rate of the methanol industry was 72.

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 752,000 tons, a decrease of 53,400 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 19.

On the downstream side, the operating rate of the methanol downstream industry continued to pick up, and the rigid demand showed an increasing trend

On the whole, the methanol port inventory fluctuates at a low level, the short-term pressure is not large, the equipment maintenance is not centralized, the supply is increasing steadily, and the downstream market has some resistance to the high price.

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: Slightly up

As of the close on March 11, the price of polypropylene market futures rose and fell, closing up overall

　　In terms of spot, as of March 11, the spot price of LLDPE has risen slightly by 50~100 yuan, and the domestic mainstream price is 9150~9600 yuan; the PP spot market price has increased by 50~100 yuan, and the mainstream price of drawing in North China is 9100~9250 yuan

　　In terms of supply, as of March 11, the maintenance of polyethylene (PE) production equipment increased, involving an annual production capacity of 2.

　　In terms of inventory, as of March 11, petrochemical producers had an inventory of 915,000 tons, and the destocking volume reached 35,000 tons

　　In terms of demand, as of March 10, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry was 49%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of the injection molding industry was 57%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week; the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry was 58% , the same as the previous week; the operating rate of biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) was 63.

　　Overall, downstream demand has picked up, and it is expected that the price of polyolefin futures will continue to rise in the short term

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Natural rubber: first rise and then fall

　　Last week, affected by the relationship between supply and demand and bearish factors, natural rubber futures showed a regional weak shock consolidation trend of falling, rebounding and then falling

　　In terms of domestic supply, the inventory of Qingdao Port continued to increase, and the inventory pressure became heavier

　　In terms of inventory, as of March 11, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 1,070 tons to 252,200 tons; the inventory of TSR 20 increased by 5,182 tons to 99,900 tons

　　On the downstream side, domestic tire factories have returned to normal operation, and the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has increased significantly month-on-month
.
As of March 10, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires was 61.
94%, an increase of 4.
46 percentage points from March 3; the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 72%, an increase of 11.
61 percentage points from March 3
.

　　On the whole, although the supply is in the seasonal off-season, the natural rubber production capacity is overcapacity.
It is expected that the sales of tires and automobiles will increase at a low rate next week, and the relationship between supply and demand is bearish.
Natural rubber will maintain a low-level regional fluctuation trend
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Soda ash: shock down

　　Last week, soda ash futures continued to oscillate downward
.
As of the close on March 11, SA2205 closed down 69 yuan to 2,573 yuan, a decrease of 2.
61%
.

　　In terms of supply, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.
8% last week, an increase of 2.
7 percentage points from the previous week; the output of soda ash manufacturers last week was 577,000 tons, an increase of 2.
5 percentage points from the previous week
.

　　In terms of inventory, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.
28 million to 1.
29 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.
4% and a year-on-year increase of 26.
4%.
The increase in inventory was limited
.
The pressure of futures warehouse receipts is relatively heavy, which has a suppressive effect on futures prices
.

　　In terms of supply and demand, the inventory level of upstream soda ash production enterprises is relatively high, and the cold repair expectations of middle and downstream glass production lines are gradually fulfilled, and the supply and demand relationship is neutral and bearish
.
The focus of spot prices in the soda ash market has shifted downward, and the trading atmosphere is not smooth.
However, the overall operating rate of soda ash enterprises is at a high level, the market supply is sufficient, the spot price fluctuates weakly, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood.

.

　　On the whole, the upstream supply of soda ash has no pressure on new production capacity, the company mainly executes orders, the demand for glass in consumption is stable, and the supply and demand relationship of soda ash will maintain a balanced situation
.
It is expected that the space for soda ash futures to rise or fall next week will be relatively limited, and it is more likely to maintain regional shocks
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)