Futures Weekly Report (3.21-3.25)

Methanol: expected to test

Last week, the methanol futures price moved up in a narrow range, standing at the 3,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark
.

In terms of spot, the methanol spot market was stable, and the prices in the coastal and inland markets both increased within a narrow range, and the supply of low-priced goods in the market decreased
.

In terms of supply, as of March 24, the overall operating load of methanol production units was 72.
96%, down 0.
51 percentage points from the previous month and up 1.
43 percentage points from the same period last year
.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas was 828,000 tons, an increase of 71,400 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 3.
33%
.

On the downstream side, the average operating load of coal-to-olefins units was 84.
9%, an increase of 1.
1 percentage points from the previous month; the performance of traditional demand industries was flat, with the exception of dimethyl ether, the operating loads all fell within a narrow range
.

　　On the whole, the current market supply and demand pressure is not large, the equipment maintenance has been started one after another, the downstream rigid demand is generally stable, and the impact of imported goods has weakened
.

　　(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

　　Polyolefins: Slightly up

　　As of the close on March 25, the price of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures mainly rose from a low level, and the main contract of LLDPE rose 93 yuan weekly to close at 9,137 yuan
.

　　In terms of spot, as of March 25, the market price of LLDPE fluctuated within a narrow range, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 8900~9450 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of PP production units was 81.
16%, down 1.
13 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) production units was 79.
62%, down 2.
9 percentage points from the previous week
.

　　In terms of inventories, last week, petrochemical producers had inventories of 910,000 tons
.

　　In terms of demand, as of March 24, the operating rate of agricultural film was 51%, the same as the previous week; the operating rate of injection molding was 57%, the same as the previous week; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 57%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week
.

　　On the whole, the overall marginal destocking of the industrial chain inventory, the transmission of industrial chain inventory to the middle and lower reaches, and the performance of the crude oil cost side is still strong, which continues to boost the price of polyolefins
.
It is expected that the price of polyolefin in the market will be driven by the cost, and the price of the market will be strong
.

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Soda ash: continuous recovery

　　Last week, as the supply and demand relationship changed from bearish factors to bullish factors, as of March 25, SA2209 closed up 136 yuan to 2905 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, the operating rate of soda ash fluctuated at a seasonally high level, and the operating rate of the industry was 85.
76%, down 4.
12% from the previous week
.
The output of soda ash manufacturers was 562,000 tons
.
The operating rate of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly, the supply of goods decreased slightly, and the orders of manufacturers improved
.

　　In terms of inventory, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.
34 million to 1.
35 million tons, basically the same as last week's inventory, an increase of 55.
3% year-on-year
.
The pressure of futures warehouse receipts is relatively heavy, which has a suppressive effect on futures prices
.

　　In terms of demand, many manufacturers' production units have entered the stage of equipment maintenance
.
Affected by geopolitical disturbances, energy futures prices including crude oil, coal, and natural gas have risen sharply across the board, and cost support has increased
.
The production of new equipment in soda ash production enterprises is delayed, the downstream glass demand and price profit are expected to stabilize, and the possibility of cold repair of glass production lines is reduced
.

　　On the whole, downstream glass manufacturers are facing uncertain situations such as epidemic transportation, and enterprises will speed up the pace of soda ash stocking
.
It is expected that soda ash futures will maintain a regional shock consolidation
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Natural rubber: low finish

　　Last week, due to the intertwining of long and short factors in the relationship between supply and demand, natural rubber futures continued to fluctuate at low levels and regionally
.
As of the close on March 25, Hujiao RU2205 closed up 45 yuan to 13,500 yuan; No.
20 rubber NR2205 closed up 90 yuan to 11,200 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, the inventory in Qingdao warehouses decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure was relieved
.
At present, it is still in the middle and late period of the cut-off period, and the supply of green and yellow is not available, resulting in a reduction in inventory
.
In terms of foreign supply, Thailand, Vietnam, production areas north of the equator in Indonesia and Malaysia are still in the off-season of rubber tapping, and the supply of natural rubber is seasonally reduced
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of March 25, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 4,090 tons to 257,600 tons; the inventory of TSR 20 increased by 2,399 tons to 103,400 tons
.
Futures and spot arbitrage increases the pressure on futures inventories, which suppresses futures prices, and diverts inventories, which has an overactive effect on current prices
.

　　On the downstream side, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires and semi-steel tires increased across the board
.
As of March 24, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires was 56.
55%, an increase of 4.
51% compared with March 17; the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires was 72.
15%, an increase of 2.
95% compared with March 17
.

　　On the whole, the supply and demand of natural rubber have increased
.
However, due to the severe international and domestic epidemics, the sales of downstream tires and automobiles have grown at a low rate, and the relationship between supply and demand is bearish.
It is expected that natural rubber will maintain a low level of regional fluctuations
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)