Futures Weekly Report (2.7-2.11)

Methanol: Falling under pressure

Last week, the methanol futures market returned after the holiday, showing a trend of rising and falling, falling below the short-term moving average support, and the weekly K line ended with four consecutive positives

As of the close of last Friday, the intertemporal price difference between methanol 2205 and 2209 contracts was -14 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the contract in recent months has weakened

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market performed in general, and most of the prices were weak after rising in a narrow range.

In terms of operating rate, as of February 10, the overall operating load of the methanol industry was 72.

On the downstream side, the downstream market demand for methanol is differentiated, the emerging demand is relatively stable, but the traditional demand industry is generally sluggish

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas is expected to accumulate and increase to 915,000 tons, an increase of 95,000 tons compared with pre-holidays, an increase of 11.

On the whole, the current market is still in the off-season of demand, the supply of goods is sufficient, the supply and demand structure is loosening, and the trend of methanol in the accumulation stage is suppressed, and it is difficult to form a trending market

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

　　Polyolefins: Slightly down

　　This issue, polypropylene (PP) and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures markets fell slightly

　　In terms of spot, the LLDPE spot market fell, and the mainstream price was 8900~9200 yuan; the PP spot price weakened, and the market generally lowered it by 50~100 yuan.

　　In terms of supply, in February, with the commissioning of the No.

　　In terms of inventory, before the Spring Festival, the pre-sales of major petrochemical enterprises were relatively active, and the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises was at a sufficient level.

　　In terms of demand, factories have resumed work one after another, and the operating rate of the agricultural film industry has increased, while most other downstream factories in PE have resumed work slowly, and the operating rate has remained at a weak level in the seasonal off-season

　　On the whole, the fundamentals of polyolefins themselves are relatively weak, and the accumulation of social inventories slightly exceeds expectations

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Natural rubber: weak adjustment

　　In this issue, the natural rubber futures market experienced a weak adjustment after rising for 4 consecutive days

　　In terms of supply, the production areas in Yunnan and Hainan remain suspended, and domestic rubber consumption still relies on inventory and imports

　　The main production areas in Thailand have entered the deciduous period since February, and the production areas in Vietnam have also entered the off-season of rubber tapping.

　　In terms of inventory, on February 11, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 2,169 tons to 248,000 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber increased by 3,024 tons to 88,600 tons
.
Futures and spot arbitrage increases the pressure on futures inventories and suppresses futures prices
.
In the context of the off-season supply, inventory diversion is beneficial to the current price of natural rubber
.

　　On the downstream side, as of February 10, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 9.
25%, an increase of 6.
6 percentage points from February 3 and a sharp decrease of 49.
76 percentage points from January 13; the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire enterprises was 20.
11 %, an increase of 5.
95 percentage points from February 3, and a sharp drop of 39.
25 percentage points from January 13
.

　　From the perspective of terminal demand, the automobile industry is seriously lacking in cores, the growth of production and sales is slow, the start of construction has not yet resumed after the holiday, and the public's willingness to buy cars has weakened
.

　　On the whole, the operating rate of downstream tire companies remains low, and it is expected to slowly recover after the Lantern Festival, and the natural rubber futures market will be weakly adjusted
.
At the same time, due to factors such as the off-season supply in domestic and foreign production areas and the epidemic hindering import transportation, the supply pressure of natural rubber has weakened, so the decline in futures prices will also be limited
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Soda Ash: Callback in Case of Resistance

　　In this issue, the high level of the soda ash futures market encountered resistance and pulled back
.
As of the close on February 11, SA2205 closed down 152 yuan to 2,973 yuan, a decrease of 4.
86%
.

　　In terms of spot, the domestic soda ash spot market continued to rise, and the trading atmosphere was mild
.

　　On the supply side, high profits drive the soda ash plant to maintain a high operating rate
.
The weighted average operating load of soda ash manufacturers last week was 83.
4%, up 0.
16 percentage points from January 28
.
Among them, the weighted average operating rate of ammonia alkali factories was 86.
4%, the weighted average operating rate of combined alkali factories was 81.
2%, and the weighted average operating rate of trona factories was 79.
5%
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.
6 million to 1.
61 million tons, an increase of 11.
6% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 105.
7%
.
Among them, the inventory of heavy alkali is 900,000 to 910,000 tons, and the inventory concentration is relatively high, mainly concentrated in Northwest China, East China, and North China
.
Soda ash inventory is at a historically high level.
With the slowdown in the downstream replenishment and the high operating rate of soda ash manufacturers, the soda ash inventory may change from a decrease to an increase
.

　　On the downstream side, the consumption demand of mid- and downstream enterprises did not change much, and they mainly digested inventories
.

　　On the whole, under the influence of unfavorable factors such as high soda ash inventory, accumulation of warehouses during the Spring Festival and downstream enterprises waiting and watching, the soda ash futures rally weakened and may face a technical correction adjustment
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)