Futures Weekly Report (2.14-2.18)

Methanol: Stabilized

Last week, the methanol futures market showed a trend of horizontal consolidation after the center of gravity fell back from a high level

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market has a different regional trend, the coastal areas fell in a narrow range, and the mainland prices were stable and small

In terms of operating rate, as of February 17, the operating load of methanol production units was 69.

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased by 100,500 tons from the previous month to 814,500 tons, which was 12.

On the downstream side, although the operating load of individual MTO plants in Shandong has increased, the Datang plant in Northwest China dropped to half-load, and the Zhongan joint plant was shut down.

On the whole, the accumulation of inventory is lower than market expectations, and methanol supply and demand are weak.

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: Slightly down

Last week, linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) futures markets edged lower

　　In terms of spot, on February 18, the spot market price of LLDPE mainly fell, with a weekly drop of 150~200 yuan in various districts, and the domestic mainstream price was 8650~9000 yuan; PP spot market was weak, with a weekly drop of 100~200 yuan, North China The mainstream price of drawing material is 8230~8300 yuan, the mainstream price of drawing material in East China is 8300~8400 yuan, and the mainstream price of drawing material in South China is 8400~8550 yuan

　　On the supply side, as of February 17, the operating rate of the PE industry was 86.

　　In terms of inventory, on February 18, the petrochemical inventory was 1.

　　In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream factories has gradually recovered, and the demand for raw materials has increased slightly, but the overall purchasing intention is still weak, and new orders are limited

　　On the whole, the inventory of polyolefins in each link is relatively large and the supply and demand are still weak.

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Natural rubber: strong rebound

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market rebounded strongly

　　In terms of supply, domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan remain suspended, and rubber consumption is still maintained at inventory and imports

　　The main production areas in southern Thailand have entered the deciduous period since February, and the northeast and north have maintained off-season supply; Vietnam has also entered the off-season for rubber tapping; Indonesian production areas north of the equator and Malaysia have maintained low temperatures in early spring, and natural rubber supply is in the off-season.

　　In terms of inventory, on February 18, the inventory of Hujiao decreased by 160 tons to 247,800 tons; the inventory of No.

　　On the downstream side, as of February 17, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 33.
05%, an increase of 23.
8 percentage points from February 10; the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire enterprises was 36.
18%, an increase of 16.
07 percentage points from February 10.

.
After the Lantern Festival, although the operating rate of domestic tire factories increased slightly month-on-month, it still fell sharply year-on-year
.

　　On the whole, due to factors such as the serious shortage of cores in the terminal automobile industry and the weakening of the public's willingness to buy cars, tire companies have overstocked inventories and the operating rate is at a low level
.
However, after the Lantern Festival, the operating rate of downstream manufacturers is expected to return to normal levels.
In addition, the supply pressure of natural rubber is relieved.
It is expected that the price of natural rubber futures will continue to rise in the short term
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Soda ash: short-term stop

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market stabilized and rebounded slightly
.
As of the close on February 18, SA2205 closed up 47 yuan to 2,803 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the overall operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry was 83.
52%, down 0.
28 percentage points from the previous month; the overall operating rate of the 12 million-ton enterprises was 83.
98%, down 0.
33 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.
6777 million tons, an increase of 186,300 tons from the previous month
.
Judging from the data of the past three years, the accumulation rate of the Spring Festival is basically 270,000 to 310,000 tons, and this year's accumulation rate is significantly lower than in previous years
.
After the holiday, traders and current merchants are active in purchasing.
At present, there are still 1-2 months of orders for soda ash factories to be dispatched.
Most of the soda ash manufacturers have signed their orders in February, and a few are even oversold until April
.
Soda ash manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the trend of destocking in the first quarter is likely to continue
.

　　On the downstream side, the downstream demand performance is acceptable, and the rigid demand is mainly purchased
.

　　On the whole, the profit of soda ash production is relatively high, and the unit load and output may remain high
.
After the end of the Winter Olympics, the recovery of photovoltaic glass production lines and the replenishment of raw materials may boost the demand for soda ash
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)