Futures Weekly Report (1.10-1.14)

Methanol: stabilized and rebounded

Last week, the methanol futures market first fell and then rose, and the disk surface showed a positive rise.

In terms of spot, last week, the methanol spot market did not push up significantly, the price was weak, and the regional performance was differentiated

In terms of operating rate, as of January 13, the overall operating load of methanol plants was 70.

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas has shrunk to 725,000 tons, a decrease of 36,500 tons from the previous month, which is significantly lower than the level of 32.

On the downstream side, the load of some olefin plants in the northwest region increased and individual MTO plants in coastal areas were restarted, and the operating rate of coal-to-olefins rebounded significantly, reaching 81.

On the whole, there is little pressure on the fundamentals, and the methanol futures market may still surge higher.

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Soda Ash: Big Ascension

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market continued to rise sharply unilaterally

　　In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, the inventory of soda ash was 1,820,300 tons, a decrease of 14,800 tons from the previous month

　　In terms of demand, the pre-holiday stocking season is approaching, and the performance of glass-based mid-stream and downstream consumer demand has improved compared with the previous period.

　　On the whole, the domestic soda ash inventory is still at a high level.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Polyolefins: On the strong side

　　Last week, the prices of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) futures were on the strong side.

In terms of spot, as of January 14, the market prices of PE and PP fell first and then rose, showing a general trend of shock consolidation.

On the supply side, as of January 14, the operating rate of PE enterprises was 91.

 In terms of demand, as of January 13, among PE downstream enterprises, the operating rate of agricultural film enterprises was 45%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the demand for shed film was weakening, the order follow-up was not smooth, and the operating rate of shed film manufacturers continued to decline; the demand for plastic film The follow-up is slow, the start-up of plastic film plants in North China is relatively slow, and the factory is cautious

In terms of inventory, on January 14, the petrochemical inventory was 525,000 tons, and the weekly destocking was 70,000 tons

On the whole, driven by cost and destocking, the polyolefin futures market strengthened slightly
.
Under the interweaving of long and short in the future, it is expected that the price of plastic futures will fluctuate in the market outlook.
It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of LLDPE2205 contract at 9,000 yuan and PP2205 contract at 8,700 yuan
.

 (Founder's mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Natural rubber: strong shock

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated and strengthened
.
As of the close of last Friday, Hujiao RU2205 closed up 260 yuan to 15,185 yuan; No.
20 rubber NR2203 closed up 290 yuan to 12,190 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan continued to stop cutting seasonally, and domestic rubber consumption was still maintained at inventory and imports
.

　　Although the rainfall in southern Thailand, the main foreign production area, has weakened, the room for continued output growth has narrowed.
The northeast and northern parts are gradually entering the deciduous period, and the output will decrease seasonally; Vietnam production areas have also entered the off-season of rubber tapping; Indonesia production areas north of the equator and Malaysia The temperature in the producing areas has dropped, and the supply of natural rubber is also shrinking
.

　　In terms of inventory, on January 14, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 5,125 tons to 239,900 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber increased by 4,838 tons to 77,500 tons
.

　　On the downstream side, as of January 13, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises was 59.
01%, an increase of 6.
98 percentage points from January 6; the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 59.
36%, a decrease of 0.
69 percentage points from January 6
.

　　Affected by the decline in the start of various projects in winter and the weakening of passenger car consumer demand, the pressure on the inventory of finished tires has increased, which has prompted the operating rate of all-steel tire and semi-steel tire enterprises to be suppressed and maintained below 60%
.

　　On the whole, affected by the reduction in supply, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated and rose
.
However, due to weak tire consumer demand and the constraints of the epidemic, the increase in natural rubber futures prices will be limited
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)