Futures Weekly (4.18-22)

Methanol: high adjustment

Last week, methanol futures failed to break above the 3,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark, and the disk surface fell under pressure.

In terms of spot, dragged down by futures adjustment, the sentiment in the domestic methanol spot market cooled down

In terms of supply, as of April 21, the overall operating load of methanol production units was 69.

In terms of inventory, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 826,800 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons from the previous month, and the overall tradable supply was estimated at 221,000 tons

On the downstream side, the operating load of the coal (methanol)-to-olefins unit decreased, with an average operating load of 86.

On the whole, with the recovery of imports, the market will enter the stage of accumulating storage, the space for demand improvement is limited, and there is no driving force for methanol upward.

(Xia Congcong in the middle of Founder)

Polyolefins: Rising and falling

Polyolefin prices rose and fell last week

　　In terms of spot, the spot market price of LLDPE is mainly organized.

　　In terms of supply, the starting load rate of polyethylene (PE) was 72.

　　In terms of inventory, the polyolefin inventory level is 780,000 tons, and the accumulation of 20,000 tons over the weekend slightly

　　In terms of demand, the operating rate of agricultural film was 35%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of packaging was 58%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 45%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week; The operating rate of injection molding was 48%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of biaxially oriented polypropylene film was 57.

　　On the whole, the recent installation load and maintenance equipment are still relatively concentrated, and the start-up load continues to maintain a low level

　　(Cheng Xuefei in the middle of Founder)

　　Soda ash: rose and fell

　　Last week, under the influence of positive factors in the supply and demand relationship, soda ash futures continued to rise sharply on one side and then retreated slightly

　　On the macro level, the National Convention has recently deployed energy to ensure supply, giving full play to the role of coal as the main energy source.

　　On the supply side, affected by the high level of production profits, the operating rate of domestic soda ash plants was 90.

　　In terms of inventory, domestic soda ash inventory was 1.

　　In terms of spot, the operating rate of soda ash manufacturers is high, the new orders are generally signed by enterprises, the reluctance to sell is obvious, and the inventory pressure is heavy
.
The pressure of futures warehouse receipts is heavy, which has a suppressive effect on futures prices
.

　　In terms of demand, the supply of soda ash is at a high level, but the supply reduction is expected to be strong.
End users purchase on demand, and there is resistance to the high price of soda ash
.

　　On the whole, affected by the high production profit and the equipment maintenance of some manufacturers, the operating rate of soda ash manufacturers is still fluctuating at a high level
.
Due to the introduction of local real estate stabilization policies, the expectation of cold repair of glass production equipment has weakened, and the demand for soda ash stocking has increased
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)

　　Natural rubber: new lows

　　Last week, affected by the suppression of negative factors in the supply and demand relationship, natural rubber futures continued to fall unilaterally and deeply, hitting a new low
.
As of the close on April 22, Hujiao RU2209 closed down 255 yuan to 13,000 yuan; No.
20 rubber NR2206 closed down 175 yuan to 11,000 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, Yunnan is fully opened, Hainan is sporadic, and the domestic supply pressure is relatively light
.
In terms of foreign supply, Thailand's production has shrunk, Vietnam has fully started cutting in early May, and rubber tapping in Malaysia and Indonesia is normal
.
The supply in the main producing areas is gradually increasing, and the pressure is slowly increasing
.

　　In terms of inventory, Qingdao's inventory increased slightly, maintaining a high level of 420,000 tons, and the inventory pressure was heavy
.
As of April 22, the inventory of Hujiao increased by 1,184 tons to 262,200 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber dropped sharply by 5,745 tons to 101,800 tons
.
Futures are now inverted, and the pressure on futures inventory is reduced, which constitutes a weak boost to futures prices
.

　　On the downstream side, consumer demand both inside and outside the terminal performed poorly.
The severe epidemic in Shanghai has affected the normal operation of the automobile industry.
In addition, the logistics and transportation are not smooth, and the room for improvement in short-term starts will be suppressed.
The operating rates of domestic all-steel tires and semi-steel tires have fluctuated.

.
As of April 21, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 59.
11%, up 2.
4% from 56.
71% on April 14; the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 67.
39%, down 0.
99% from 68.
38% on April 14
.

　　On the whole, the supply of natural rubber is strong and the demand is weak, the international and domestic epidemics are frequent, and the downstream automobile industry is booming, which inhibits tire consumption
.
It is expected that natural rubber will fluctuate at a low level
.

　　(Shi Hai of CSI Futures)